luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Baylor vs Auburn, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Auburn beat Baylor 17–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Auburn wins 8 of 10. Baylor had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Baylor.

Before kickoff Auburn was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:52 left): Offside on Auburn, 5 yards, worth 14 points of win probability to Baylor.

Final

Baylor Bears 16
Auburn Tigers 17

September 5, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Auburn −6.5

Luck index +18 Auburn about even · −18 Baylor

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Baylor wins 2, Auburn wins 8.

  1. 1 BAY 22 AUB 10
  2. 2 BAY 34 AUB 31
  3. 3 BAY 7 AUB 10
  4. 4 BAY 3 AUB 10
  5. 5 BAY 6 AUB 16
  6. 6 BAY 14 AUB 28
  7. 7 BAY 14 AUB 31
  8. 8 BAY 7 AUB 28
  9. 9 BAY 10 AUB 37
  10. 10 BAY 0 AUB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Baylor wins 18% of them, Auburn 82%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Auburn by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Baylor by 17+1.8%
Baylor by 9–164.1%
Baylor by 1–89.8%
Level after regulation2.6%
Auburn by 1–818.6%
Auburn by 9–1621.4%
Auburn by 17+41.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to Baylor: the final margin was Auburn by 1, without the luck Auburn by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. McPherson, 43 yds made · 68% expected
  • R. Armstrong, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
  • A. McPherson, 43 yds missed · 69% expected
  • R. Armstrong, 22 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Baylor 5 for 40 yards, Auburn 6 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:27 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% AUB +1.7 pts
Q1 5:17 Holding on Auburn, 10 yards +2% BAY +1.1 pts
Q2 9:47 Offside on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% AUB +0.9 pts
Q2 3:00 Pass Interference on Auburn, 7 yards +2% BAY +1.2 pts
Q2 1:39 Pass Interference on Auburn, 15 yards +2% BAY +0.9 pts
Q3 5:48 Personal Foul on Baylor, 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% AUB +1.1 pts
Q3 5:05 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAY +0.4 pts
Q3 4:08 False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% AUB +0.7 pts
Q3 2:53 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAY +1.2 pts
Q3 2:28 Offside on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% AUB +1.2 pts
Q4 10:52 Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +14% BAY +3.2 pts

When it happened

Auburn’s chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Auburn was ahead in it, below while Baylor was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 6:09 Baylor was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +10% AUB BAY: Punt
2 Q3 0:03 Auburn was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% BAY AUB: Turnover
3 Q4 11:54 Baylor was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% AUB BAY: Field goal
4 Q4 10:52 Offside on Auburn, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +14% BAY BAY: Field goal
5 Q4 8:23 Baylor converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +10% BAY BAY: Field goal
6 Q4 4:36 Auburn converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +13% AUB AUB: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:26 Baylor converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +13% BAY BAY: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:09 Baylor converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedBaylor’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% AUB –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Baylor 43% · Auburn 57%

Final margin
Auburn by 1
Luck in points
0.6 for Baylor
Luck-adjusted margin
Auburn by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Baylor 18% · Auburn 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Baylor · Auburn

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