luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 3, 2026

Colorado at Georgia Tech, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Colorado beat Georgia Tech 14–13, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia Tech wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Colorado.

Before kickoff Georgia Tech was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:35 left): D. Gerlach had a 38-yard field goal blocked, worth 13 points of win probability to Georgia Tech.

Final

Colorado Buffaloes 14
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 13

September 3, 2026 · Bobby Dodd Stadium · Closing line: Georgia Tech −6.5

Luck index +81 Colorado very lucky · −81 Georgia Tech

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colorado wins 2, Georgia Tech wins 8.

  1. 1 COLO 24 GT 10
  2. 2 COLO 14 GT 9
  3. 3 COLO 10 GT 13
  4. 4 COLO 21 GT 27
  5. 5 COLO 17 GT 27
  6. 6 COLO 8 GT 21
  7. 7 COLO 3 GT 19
  8. 8 COLO 17 GT 37
  9. 9 COLO 6 GT 31
  10. 10 COLO 0 GT 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colorado wins 19% of them, Georgia Tech 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colorado by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colorado by 17+1.9%
Colorado by 9–165.3%
Colorado by 1–811.3%
Level after regulation0.9%
Georgia Tech by 1–820.1%
Georgia Tech by 9–1620.5%
Georgia Tech by 17+40.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.8 points to Colorado: the final margin was Colorado by 1, without the luck Georgia Tech by 11.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. Birr, 35 yds missed · 82% expected
  • A. Birr, 22 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Gerlach, 38 yds blocked · 76% expected
  • A. Birr, 29 yds made · 88% expected
  • A. Birr, 45 yds blocked · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colorado 6 for 60 yards, Georgia Tech 6 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:30 Illegal Formation on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% COLO +3.1 pts
Q2 7:38 Pass Interference on Colorado, 11 yards +2% GT +0.7 pts
Q2 3:42 False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% COLO +0.7 pts
Q2 1:07 Unnecessary Roughness on Colorado, 15 yards +4% GT +1.6 pts
Q2 0:32 False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% COLO +0.1 pts
Q2 0:32 False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% COLO +0.1 pts
Q2 0:18 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards +2% GT +0.6 pts
Q3 14:54 Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards +1% COLO +0.6 pts
Q3 11:22 Holding on Colorado, 4 yards +1% GT +0.2 pts
Q3 9:16 Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 12 yards +5% COLO +1.7 pts
Q3 4:23 Illegal Return on Colorado, 5 yards +1% GT +0.3 pts
Q3 3:25 Face Mask on Colorado, 15 yards +5% GT +1.8 pts

When it happened

Georgia Tech’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Georgia Tech was ahead in it, below while Colorado was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:04 Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% GT GT: Field goal
2 Q3 8:35 Colorado converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% COLO COLO: Punt
3 Q3 6:31 Colorado converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +7% COLO COLO: Punt
4 Q4 9:15 Colorado fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% COLO COLO: Missed field goal
5 Q4 7:35 D. Gerlach had a 38-yard field goal blockedKicks · 76% expected for him +13% GT COLO: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:33 Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% GT GT: Field goal
7 Q4 0:55 Colorado converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +9% COLO COLO: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:26 Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% COLO GT: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colorado 6% · Georgia Tech 94%

Final margin
Colorado by 1
Luck in points
12.8 for Colorado
Luck-adjusted margin
Georgia Tech by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Colorado 19% · Georgia Tech 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Colorado · Georgia Tech

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