Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Final

Miami (OH) RedHawks	14
Pittsburgh Panthers	59

September 5, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Pittsburgh −16.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +4 Pittsburgh about even · −4 Miami (OH)

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Miami (OH) wins 0, Pittsburgh wins 10.

1 M-OH 35 PITT 41
2 M-OH 28 PITT 40
3 M-OH 7 PITT 24
4 M-OH 17 PITT 38
5 M-OH 14 PITT 38
6 M-OH 24 PITT 51
7 M-OH 21 PITT 51
8 M-OH 0 PITT 33
9 M-OH 21 PITT 58
10 M-OH 3 PITT 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Miami (OH) wins 4% of them, Pittsburgh 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 45.

Actual: Pittsburgh by 45 494235282114707142128354249 ← Miami (OH) win by Pittsburgh win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Miami (OH) by 17+	0.4%
Miami (OH) by 9–16	1.0%
Miami (OH) by 1–8	2.0%
Level after regulation	0.8%
Pittsburgh by 1–8	7.9%
Pittsburgh by 9–16	10.9%
Pittsburgh by 17+	77.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Kicks +1% PITT

Fumble bounces +1% PITT

All luck +2% PITT

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to Pittsburgh: the final margin was Pittsburgh by 45, without the luck Pittsburgh by 41. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Miami (OH) 9 for 78 yards, Pittsburgh 5 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 12:49	Face Mask on Miami (OH), 15 yards	+2% PITT +1.6 pts
Q1 11:45	Illegal Motion on Pittsburgh, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap	+1% M-OH +0.3 pts
Q1 9:10	False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% PITT +0.8 pts
Q1 6:01	Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards	+1% PITT +1.1 pts
Q1 4:44	Offside on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% M-OH +0.8 pts
Q2 14:18	False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	0% PITT +0.5 pts
Q2 5:05	Intentional Grounding on Miami (OH), 0 yards	0% PITT 0.0 pts
Q2 3:53	Holding on Pittsburgh, 8 yards, wiping out the play	+1% M-OH +1.5 pts
Q2 1:22	Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards	+1% M-OH +1.0 pts
Q2 0:32	False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% M-OH +0.2 pts
Q2 0:25	Personal Foul on Miami (OH), 15 yards	+1% PITT +1.6 pts
Q3 7:07	Unnecessary Roughness on Miami (OH), 13 yards	0% PITT +0.8 pts
Q3 2:34	False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	0% PITT +0.9 pts
Q4 8:26	Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards	0% PITT +0.6 pts

When it happened

Pittsburgh’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Pittsburgh 50% Miami (OH) Q1Q2Q3Q4 1245678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Pittsburgh was ahead in it, below while Miami (OH) was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 12:49	Face Mask on Miami (OH), 15 yardsJudgment calls	+2% PITT	PITT: Touchdown
2	Q1 10:28	Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected	+1% M-OH	PITT: Touchdown
3	Q1 6:10	Pittsburgh fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+1% PITT	PITT: Touchdown
4	Q1 4:55	Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected	+1% PITT	PITT: Touchdown
5	Q2 11:08	Miami (OH) converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected	+1% M-OH	M-OH: Touchdown
6	Q2 9:03	Pittsburgh was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected	+1% M-OH	PITT: Punt
7	Q2 5:54	Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected	+1% M-OH	M-OH: Punt
8	Q2 0:00	A. Chadha made a 58-yard field goalKicks · 41% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before	+1% PITT	PITT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Miami (OH) 0% · Pittsburgh 100%

Final margin: Pittsburgh by 45
Luck in points: 4.0 for Pittsburgh
Luck-adjusted margin: Pittsburgh by 41.0
Replay with same day's form: Miami (OH) 4% · Pittsburgh 96% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

Face Mask on Miami (OH), 15 yardsQ1 12:49
Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 11Q1 10:28
Pittsburgh fumbled and recovered itQ1 6:10
Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 5Q1 4:55
Miami (OH) converted 4th & 9Q2 11:08
Pittsburgh was stopped on 3rd & 3Q2 9:03
Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 12Q2 5:54
A. Chadha made a 58-yard field goalQ2 0:00

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Miami (OH) · Pittsburgh

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