luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 3, 2026

UAlbany at Buffalo, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Buffalo beat UAlbany 21–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Buffalo wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Buffalo was an 88% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:43 left): Buffalo converted 3rd & 10, worth 9 points of win probability to Buffalo.

Final

UAlbany Great Danes 17
Buffalo Bulls 21

September 3, 2026 · UB Stadium · Closing line: Buffalo −18.5

Luck index +18 Buffalo about even · −18 UAlbany

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UAlbany wins 2, Buffalo wins 8.

  1. 1 UALB 26 BUF 13
  2. 2 UALB 19 BUF 16
  3. 3 UALB 17 BUF 20
  4. 4 UALB 14 BUF 20
  5. 5 UALB 12 BUF 21
  6. 6 UALB 7 BUF 20
  7. 7 UALB 16 BUF 31
  8. 8 UALB 0 BUF 19
  9. 9 UALB 3 BUF 27
  10. 10 UALB 0 BUF 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UAlbany wins 18% of them, Buffalo 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buffalo by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UAlbany by 17+1.7%
UAlbany by 9–165.9%
UAlbany by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Buffalo by 1–823.4%
Buffalo by 9–1618.9%
Buffalo by 17+39.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to Buffalo: the final margin was Buffalo by 4, without the luck Buffalo by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: UAlbany 8 for 66 yards, Buffalo 9 for 105 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:45 Roughing the Kicker on UAlbany, 15 yards +4% BUF +4.1 pts
Q1 8:45 Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards +1% UALB +1.0 pts
Q1 8:45 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UALB +1.0 pts
Q1 5:15 Roughing the Passer on Buffalo, 15 yards +2% UALB +1.6 pts
Q2 10:24 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UALB +0.9 pts
Q2 6:59 Unnecessary Roughness on UAlbany, 8 yards 0% BUF +0.3 pts
Q2 6:59 Delay of Game on UAlbany, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 5:13 Roughing the Passer on UAlbany, 8 yards +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 0:46 Roughing the Passer on Buffalo, 15 yards +2% UALB +1.6 pts
Q2 0:46 Delay of Game on UAlbany, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q3 11:50 Roughing the Passer on Buffalo, 15 yards +3% UALB +1.6 pts
Q3 2:02 Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards +4% UALB +1.1 pts
Q4 15:00 Personal Foul on Buffalo, 15 yards +3% UALB +0.9 pts
Q4 6:43 Holding on UAlbany, 10 yards +4% BUF +0.6 pts
Q4 6:43 Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards +6% UALB +1.1 pts
Q4 4:53 Holding on UAlbany, 10 yards +6% BUF +1.2 pts
Q4 1:19 False Start on UAlbany, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +1.1 pts

When it happened

Buffalo’s chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Buffalo was ahead in it, below while UAlbany was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:15 UAlbany converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedRoughing the Passer on Buffalo, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% UALB UALB: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:33 UAlbany was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedBuffalo fumbled and UAlbany recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% UALB UALB: Touchdown
3 Q4 15:00 Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedPersonal Foul on Buffalo, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% UALB BUF: Punt
4 Q4 13:02 UAlbany was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% BUF UALB: Punt
5 Q4 11:34 Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% UALB BUF: Punt
6 Q4 7:00 UAlbany was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% BUF UALB: Punt
7 Q4 6:43 Buffalo converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedHolding on UAlbany, 10 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Buffalo, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:53 Holding on UAlbany, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% BUF BUF: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UAlbany 42% · Buffalo 58%

Final margin
Buffalo by 4
Luck in points
2.6 for Buffalo
Luck-adjusted margin
Buffalo by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
UAlbany 18% · Buffalo 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · UAlbany · Buffalo

More from Week 1 2026

Every week 1 game, 2026