Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Ohio at Nebraska, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Nebraska beat Ohio 49–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Nebraska wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Nebraska was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Ohio Bobcats | 21 |
|---|---|
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Nebraska about even · −7 Ohio
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ohio wins 1, Nebraska wins 9.
- 1 OHIO 20 NEB 14
- 2 OHIO 21 NEB 24
- 3 OHIO 21 NEB 28
- 4 OHIO 20 NEB 31
- 5 OHIO 23 NEB 38
- 6 OHIO 17 NEB 35
- 7 OHIO 7 NEB 28
- 8 OHIO 19 NEB 45
- 9 OHIO 14 NEB 45
- 10 OHIO 8 NEB 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ohio wins 7% of them, Nebraska 93%. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ohio by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 4.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 15.1% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| Nebraska by 17+ | 59.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Hryszko, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- W. Hryszko, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- W. Hryszko, 44 yds missed · 66% expected
Penalties: Ohio 2 for 30 yards, Nebraska 9 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:22 | Personal Foul on Ohio, 15 yards | +1% NEB +1.6 pts |
| Q1 8:19 | Offside on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OHIO +0.3 pts |
| Q1 6:29 | Offside on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +1.0 pts |
| Q1 2:15 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:37 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +0.4 pts |
| Q2 14:13 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 15 yards | +3% OHIO +2.4 pts |
| Q2 9:20 | Block Below the Waist on Ohio, 15 yards | +2% NEB +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 15 yards | +1% OHIO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:12 | Intentional Grounding on Nebraska, 18 yards | +2% OHIO +1.1 pts |
| Q3 9:13 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards | +1% OHIO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:17 | Offside on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OHIO +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Nebraska’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:13 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% OHIO | OHIO: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 11:38 | Ohio converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +4% OHIO | OHIO: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 9:20 | Block Below the Waist on Ohio, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 4:38 | Ohio converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% OHIO | OHIO: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 14:12 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 313rd & 4th downs · 12% expectedIntentional Grounding on Nebraska, 18 yardsJudgment calls | +3% OHIO | NEB: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 11:55 | Ohio converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +3% OHIO | OHIO: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 10:38 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% NEB | OHIO: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q3 10:02 | W. Hryszko missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him | +4% NEB | OHIO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ohio 0% · Nebraska 100%
- Final margin
- Nebraska by 28
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for Ohio
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nebraska by 28.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Ohio 7% · Nebraska 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Ohio · 
Nebraska
More from Week 1 2026
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Tarleton State at Bowling Green TAR 20–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Wisconsin vs Notre Dame ND 41–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- UAlbany at Buffalo BUF 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner