luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

North Texas at Indiana, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Indiana beat North Texas 52–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Indiana was a 99% favorite.

Final

North Texas Mean Green 16
Indiana Hoosiers 52

September 5, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Closing line: Indiana −39.5

Luck index +8 Indiana about even · −8 North Texas

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Texas wins 1, Indiana wins 9.

  1. 1 UNT 24 IU 20
  2. 2 UNT 21 IU 24
  3. 3 UNT 28 IU 35
  4. 4 UNT 21 IU 31
  5. 5 UNT 7 IU 21
  6. 6 UNT 17 IU 35
  7. 7 UNT 28 IU 49
  8. 8 UNT 28 IU 55
  9. 9 UNT 17 IU 49
  10. 10 UNT 10 IU 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Texas wins 8% of them, Indiana 92%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 36.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Texas by 17+0.3%
North Texas by 9–162.1%
North Texas by 1–85.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Indiana by 1–815.4%
Indiana by 9–1620.1%
Indiana by 17+56.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to Indiana: the final margin was Indiana by 36, without the luck Indiana by 32. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. De Freitas, 47 yds made · 59% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 33 yds made · 84% expected
  • N. Radicic, 49 yds made · 59% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 55 yds missed · 46% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 38 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Texas 8 for 64 yards, Indiana 5 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:18 Holding on North Texas, 10 yards 0% IU +1.3 pts
Q1 9:52 Offside on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +0.1 pts
Q1 9:25 Pass Interference on Indiana, 13 yards 0% UNT +4.3 pts
Q1 3:58 Holding on Indiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% UNT +4.7 pts
Q1 0:13 Offside on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.3 pts
Q2 8:24 Face Mask on North Texas, 15 yards 0% IU +0.9 pts
Q2 1:54 Offside on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +0.3 pts
Q2 1:24 Delay of Game on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +0.4 pts
Q3 9:51 Holding on North Texas, 8 yards 0% IU +0.5 pts
Q3 8:45 Face Mask on Indiana, 15 yards 0% UNT +1.6 pts
Q3 4:50 Personal Foul on North Texas, 15 yards 0% IU +1.7 pts
Q4 11:16 Delay of Game on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +1.1 pts
Q4 5:55 Personal Foul on North Texas, 1 yard 0% IU +0.8 pts

When it happened

Indiana’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Indiana was ahead in it, below while North Texas was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:25 Pass Interference on Indiana, 13 yardsJudgment calls +0% UNT UNT: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 8:13 North Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +0% UNT UNT: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 6:36 North Texas was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +0% IU UNT: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 5:52 North Texas was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +0% IU UNT: Field goal
5 Q1 3:58 Holding on Indiana, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% UNT UNT: Field goal
6 Q2 12:49 North Texas converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% UNT UNT: Field goal
7 Q3 4:50 Personal Foul on North Texas, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% IU IU: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:09 North Texas converted 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +0% UNT UNT: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Texas 0% · Indiana 100%

Final margin
Indiana by 36
Luck in points
4.0 for Indiana
Luck-adjusted margin
Indiana by 32.0
Replay with same day's form
North Texas 8% · Indiana 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · North Texas · Indiana

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