luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Oklahoma State at Tulsa, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Tulsa beat Oklahoma State 24–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tulsa wins 8 of 10. Oklahoma State had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Oklahoma State.

An off day for Oklahoma State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Tulsa it would win 69% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers

Before kickoff Oklahoma State was an 81% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:38 left): Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to Oklahoma State.

Final

Oklahoma State Cowboys 10
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 24

September 5, 2026 · Chapman Stadium · Closing line: Oklahoma State −13.5

Luck index +17 Tulsa about even · −17 Oklahoma State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oklahoma State wins 2, Tulsa wins 8.

  1. 1 OKST 35 TLSA 20
  2. 2 OKST 24 TLSA 20
  3. 3 OKST 13 TLSA 16
  4. 4 OKST 21 TLSA 27
  5. 5 OKST 14 TLSA 23
  6. 6 OKST 13 TLSA 24
  7. 7 OKST 13 TLSA 28
  8. 8 OKST 14 TLSA 34
  9. 9 OKST 17 TLSA 42
  10. 10 OKST 13 TLSA 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Oklahoma State

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Tulsa it would win 69% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.

52 points apart for Oklahoma State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Oklahoma State offenseEPA per play gained −0.12 +0.01 worse by 0.13
Oklahoma State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.10 worse by 0.06
Tulsa offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 +0.04 better by 0.12
Tulsa defenseEPA per play allowed −0.12 +0.06 better by 0.18

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oklahoma State wins 16% of them, Tulsa 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulsa by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oklahoma State by 17+2.8%
Oklahoma State by 9–165.0%
Oklahoma State by 1–88.5%
Level after regulation1.9%
Tulsa by 1–820.6%
Tulsa by 9–1619.9%
Tulsa by 17+41.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to Oklahoma State: the final margin was Tulsa by 14, without the luck Tulsa by 14.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Hauck, 40 yds made · 72% expected
  • M. Hauck, 31 yds missed · 86% expected
  • S. Keltner, 35 yds made · 80% expected
  • M. Hauck, 40 yds missed · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Oklahoma State 6 for 59 yards, Tulsa 10 for 117 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:19 Pass Interference on Tulsa, 15 yards +1% OKST +1.1 pts
Q1 2:14 Personal Foul on Oklahoma State, 13 yards +1% TLSA +0.8 pts
Q1 1:10 Illegal Substitution on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OKST +0.4 pts
Q2 13:56 Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards +1% TLSA +0.6 pts
Q2 13:33 Personal Foul on Tulsa, 15 yards +4% OKST +2.1 pts
Q2 12:10 Delay of Game on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TLSA +0.2 pts
Q2 1:16 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% OKST +2.9 pts
Q2 0:57 Unnecessary Roughness on Oklahoma State, 6 yards +7% TLSA +2.6 pts
Q3 4:07 Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards +7% TLSA +2.4 pts
Q3 3:12 Pass Interference on Tulsa, 15 yards +7% OKST +2.6 pts
Q3 1:08 Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 15 yards +1% TLSA +0.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards +2% OKST +0.6 pts
Q4 10:38 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% OKST +3.6 pts
Q4 4:27 Pass Interference on Tulsa, 15 yards +1% OKST +1.2 pts
Q4 4:21 Pass Interference on Tulsa, 12 yards +3% OKST +3.4 pts
Q4 4:11 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% OKST +4.4 pts

When it happened

Tulsa’s chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Tulsa was ahead in it, below while Oklahoma State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:25 M. Hauck missed a 31-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +7% OKST TLSA: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:16 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% OKST OKST: End of half
3 Q3 10:10 Oklahoma State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% TLSA OKST: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:07 Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% TLSA TLSA: Turnover
5 Q3 3:12 Pass Interference on Tulsa, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% OKST OKST: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:52 Oklahoma State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% OKST OKST: Punt
7 Q4 10:38 Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% OKST OKST: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 8:38 Oklahoma State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% TLSA OKST: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oklahoma State 1% · Tulsa 99%

Final margin
Tulsa by 14
Luck in points
0.9 for Oklahoma State
Luck-adjusted margin
Tulsa by 14.9
Replay with same day's form
Oklahoma State 16% · Tulsa 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

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