American · 2026 season, in progress

Tulsa Golden Hurricane: luck and expected wins

Tulsa is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 10th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Tulsa wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Oklahoma State	W 24–10	84%	+17
Week 2	@ Sam Houston	W 23–17	27%	+73
Week 3	vs East Texas A&M	W 42–0	99%	+1
Week 4	@ Arkansas	L 6–34	1%	−1

Wk 1 +17 vs OKST

Wk 2 +73 @ SHSU

Wk 3 +1 vs ETAM

Wk 4 −1 @ ARK

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Tulsa win chance
Week 5 · Oct 1	vs North Texas	North Texas by 10.5	25%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Navy	Navy by 5.1	38%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Rice	Tulsa by 3.9	60%
Week 8 · Oct 23	vs Army	Army by 6.5	35%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Tulane	Tulane by 8.5	30%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Florida Atlantic	Tulsa by 4.5	60%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Charlotte	Tulsa by 18.6	86%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at UTSA	UTSA by 12.9	22%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Tulsa’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.12	+4.7
Fumble bounces	+0.11	−0.2
Pre-snap flags	−0.09	−8.1
Kicks	−0.13	−5.9

Luckiest wins

Wins Tulsa takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 2	@ Sam Houston	W 23–17	27%	+73
2025 Week 4	@ Oklahoma State	W 19–12	44%	+56
2025 Week 13	@ Army	W 26–25	55%	+45
2026 Week 1	vs Oklahoma State	W 24–10	84%	+17
2025 Week 1	vs Abilene Christian	W 35–7	99%	+1

Unluckiest losses

Losses Tulsa would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 2	@ New Mexico State	L 14–21	76%	−76
2025 Week 14	vs UAB	L 24–31	67%	−67
2025 Week 9	vs Temple	L 37–38	40%	−40
2025 Week 5	vs Tulane	L 14–31	24%	−24
2025 Week 11	@ Florida Atlantic	L 21–40	20%	−20

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	5.5	−1.5	2–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Abilene Christian	W 35–7	99%	+1
Week 2	@ New Mexico State	L 14–21	76%	−76
Week 3	vs Navy	L 23–42	16%	−16
Week 4	@ Oklahoma State	W 19–12	44%	+56
Week 5	vs Tulane	L 14–31	24%	−24
Week 6	@ Memphis	L 7–45	3%	−3
Week 8	@ East Carolina	L 27–41	6%	−6
Week 9	vs Temple	L 37–38	40%	−40
Week 11	@ Florida Atlantic	L 21–40	20%	−20
Week 12	vs Oregon State	W 31–14	100%	0
Week 13	@ Army	W 26–25	55%	+45
Week 14	vs UAB	L 24–31	67%	−67