Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Oregon State at Tulsa, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulsa beat Oregon State 31–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tulsa wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Oregon State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Tulsa it would win 34% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers
Before kickoff Tulsa was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Oregon State Beavers | 14 |
|---|---|
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Tulsa about even · 0 Oregon State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon State wins 0, Tulsa wins 10.
- 1 ORST 0 TLSA 13
- 2 ORST 0 TLSA 19
- 3 ORST 3 TLSA 27
- 4 ORST 5 TLSA 31
- 5 ORST 7 TLSA 35
- 6 ORST 9 TLSA 41
- 7 ORST 3 TLSA 38
- 8 ORST 0 TLSA 39
- 9 ORST 0 TLSA 43
- 10 ORST 0 TLSA 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Oregon State
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Tulsa it would win 34% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for Oregon State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.33 | +0.06 | worse by 0.39 |
| Oregon State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.05 | worse by 0.09 |
| Tulsa offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | −0.03 | better by 0.17 |
| Tulsa defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.33 | +0.10 | better by 0.43 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon State wins 0% of them, Tulsa 100%. The line is what actually happened: Tulsa by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Oregon State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Oregon State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Tulsa by 17+ | 97.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Oregon State 7 for 85 yards, Tulsa 6 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:29 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards | +4% ORST +1.9 pts |
| Q1 11:30 | Block Below the Waist on Oregon State, 10 yards | +1% TLSA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:21 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards | +1% TLSA +0.5 pts |
| Q1 6:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon State, 15 yards | +2% TLSA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on Tulsa, 15 yards | +2% ORST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:08 | Roughing the Passer on Tulsa, 15 yards | +2% ORST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:50 | Offside on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORST +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:08 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards | +1% TLSA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:25 | Illegal Formation on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORST +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:45 | Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards | +2% TLSA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TLSA +0.2 pts |
| Q3 1:16 | Personal Foul on Tulsa, 15 yards | 0% ORST +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:16 | Face Mask on Oregon State, 15 yards | 0% TLSA +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Tulsa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:29 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% ORST | ORST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:24 | Oregon State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% ORST | ORST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% TLSA | TLSA: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:52 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +2% TLSA | ORST: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 0:17 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +2% TLSA | ORST: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 0:09 | Oregon State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% TLSA | ORST: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 11:08 | Roughing the Passer on Tulsa, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% ORST | ORST: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 3:45 | Holding on Oregon State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% TLSA | TLSA: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon State 0% · Tulsa 100%
- Final margin
- Tulsa by 17
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for Oregon State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulsa by 18.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon State 0% · Tulsa 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Oregon State · 
Tulsa
More from Week 12 2025
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Memphis at East Carolina ECU 31–27 · replay 62% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Tulane TULN 35–24 · replay 76% for the winner
- North Texas at UAB UNT 53–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- UTSA at Charlotte UTSA 28–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Washington State WSU 28–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner