Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Florida Atlantic at Tulane, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat Florida Atlantic 35–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Tulane was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 24 |
|---|---|
 Tulane Green Wave | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Tulane about even · −24 Florida Atlantic
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida Atlantic wins 2, Tulane wins 8.
- 1 FAU 38 TULN 24
- 2 FAU 24 TULN 21
- 3 FAU 31 TULN 34
- 4 FAU 14 TULN 20
- 5 FAU 17 TULN 26
- 6 FAU 12 TULN 24
- 7 FAU 28 TULN 43
- 8 FAU 6 TULN 24
- 9 FAU 14 TULN 38
- 10 FAU 21 TULN 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida Atlantic wins 24% of them, Tulane 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 4.7% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 5.6% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 13.2% |
| Level after regulation | 4.4% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 20.9% |
| Tulane by 17+ | 30.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Florida Atlantic 4 for 28 yards, Tulane 7 for 84 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:38 | Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 13 yards | 0% FAU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 4:26 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards | +2% FAU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 2:14 | Illegal Formation on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% TULN +4.3 pts |
| Q1 1:53 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +1% FAU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:42 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 11:57 | Holding on Tulane, 9 yards | +1% FAU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:55 | Targeting on Tulane, 15 yards | +2% FAU +2.5 pts |
| Q2 2:08 | Offside on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:09 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | +1% FAU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:08 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% FAU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Unnecessary Roughness on Tulane, 15 yards | 0% FAU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Tulane’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:15 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +3% FAU | FAU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:26 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% FAU | FAU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 2:14 | Illegal Formation on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +5% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 14:54 | Tulane converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 11:06 | Florida Atlantic converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% FAU | FAU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 8:24 | Tulane converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 2:08 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedOffside on Florida Atlantic, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% TULN | FAU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 3:28 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +2% TULN | FAU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida Atlantic 29% · Tulane 71%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 11
- Luck in points
- 6.8 for Tulane
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulane by 4.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida Atlantic 24% · Tulane 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Florida Atlantic · 
Tulane
More from Week 12 2025
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Memphis at East Carolina ECU 31–27 · replay 62% for the winner
- North Texas at UAB UNT 53–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- UTSA at Charlotte UTSA 28–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon State at Tulsa TLSA 31–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner