Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
UTSA at Charlotte, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
UTSA beat Charlotte 28–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UTSA wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff UTSA was an 86% favorite.
Final
 UTSA Roadrunners | 28 |
|---|---|
 Charlotte 49ers | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 UTSA about even · −2 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTSA wins 10, Charlotte wins 0.
- 1 UTSA 52 CLT 7
- 2 UTSA 44 CLT 8
- 3 UTSA 39 CLT 7
- 4 UTSA 28 CLT 0
- 5 UTSA 38 CLT 12
- 6 UTSA 24 CLT 0
- 7 UTSA 23 CLT 3
- 8 UTSA 31 CLT 15
- 9 UTSA 17 CLT 6
- 10 UTSA 13 CLT 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTSA wins 98% of them, Charlotte 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UTSA by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTSA by 17+ | 79.7% |
| UTSA by 9–16 | 11.8% |
| UTSA by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Petro, 33 yds missed · 85% expected
- M. Petro, 35 yds missed · 81% expected
Penalties: UTSA 2 for 30 yards, Charlotte 6 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:39 | Illegal Substitution on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 3:48 | Face Mask on Charlotte, 13 yards | +1% UTSA +1.5 pts |
| Q2 7:12 | Personal Foul on UTSA, 15 yards | +1% CLT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:28 | Offside on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTSA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 3:19 | Personal Foul on Charlotte, 12 yards | +1% UTSA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 11:29 | Personal Foul on Charlotte, 15 yards | 0% UTSA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:53 | Personal Foul on UTSA, 15 yards | 0% CLT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:09 | Intentional Grounding on Charlotte, 4 yards | 0% UTSA +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Charlotte’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:45 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +2% CLT | CLT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 0:31 | UTSA converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% UTSA | UTSA: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 13:12 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +3% CLT | CLT: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 5:54 | M. Petro missed a 33-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him | +3% CLT | UTSA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 0:07 | UTSA was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% CLT | UTSA: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 9:37 | M. Petro missed a 35-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him | +3% CLT | UTSA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 5:55 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% UTSA | CLT: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 3:45 | UTSA was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +5% CLT | UTSA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTSA 100% · Charlotte 0%
- Final margin
- UTSA by 21
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for Charlotte
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UTSA by 24.9
- Replay with same day's form
- UTSA 98% · Charlotte 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
UTSA · 
Charlotte
More from Week 12 2025
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Memphis at East Carolina ECU 31–27 · replay 62% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Tulane TULN 35–24 · replay 76% for the winner
- North Texas at UAB UNT 53–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Oregon State at Tulsa TLSA 31–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner