Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Kansas State at Oklahoma State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Kansas State beat Oklahoma State 14–6, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma State wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Kansas State.
Kansas State won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Oklahoma State it would win 87% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff Kansas State was a 90% favorite.
Final
 Kansas State Wildcats | 14 |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma State Cowboys | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +93 Kansas State very lucky · −93 Oklahoma State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kansas State wins 1, Oklahoma State wins 9.
- 1 KSU 17 OKST 10
- 2 KSU 28 OKST 31
- 3 KSU 13 OKST 20
- 4 KSU 9 OKST 20
- 5 KSU 16 OKST 30
- 6 KSU 7 OKST 24
- 7 KSU 14 OKST 34
- 8 KSU 14 OKST 37
- 9 KSU 0 OKST 28
- 10 KSU 7 OKST 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Kansas State won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Oklahoma State it would win 87% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
80 points apart for Kansas State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.13 | worse by 0.17 |
| Kansas State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.04 | worse by 0.01 |
| Oklahoma State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.05 | worse by 0.01 |
| Oklahoma State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.20 | better by 0.24 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kansas State wins 7% of them, Oklahoma State 93%. The line is what actually happened: Kansas State by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kansas State by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 4.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Oklahoma State by 1–8 | 15.5% |
| Oklahoma State by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Oklahoma State by 17+ | 58.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Ward, 47 yds made · 59% expected
- L. Ward, 47 yds made · 60% expected
- L. Ward, 55 yds missed · 46% expected
- L. Rodriguez, 38 yds missed · 78% expected
Penalties: Kansas State 6 for 50 yards, Oklahoma State 3 for 21 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:59 | Face Mask on Kansas State, 15 yards | +2% OKST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:57 | Illegal Formation on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OKST +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:39 | Holding on Oklahoma State, 6 yards | +1% KSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:24 | Offside on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% KSU +2.4 pts |
| Q3 5:17 | Delay of Game on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OKST +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:29 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards | +2% OKST +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:24 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards | +1% OKST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:28 | Delay of Game on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OKST +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:23 | Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% KSU +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Oklahoma State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:07 | Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +6% OKST | OKST: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 7:29 | Kansas State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +4% OKST | KSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:24 | Offside on Oklahoma State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% KSU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 0:15 | L. Rodriguez missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +4% OKST | KSU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 10:35 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% KSU | KSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 1:36 | Oklahoma State fumbled and Kansas State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% KSU | OKST: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 14:12 | Kansas State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% KSU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:23 | Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% KSU | KSU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kansas State 93% · Oklahoma State 7%
- Final margin
- Kansas State by 8
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for Oklahoma State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kansas State by 10.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Kansas State 7% · Oklahoma State 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Kansas State · 
Oklahoma State
More from Week 12 2025
- West Virginia at Arizona State ASU 25–23 · replay 56% for the winner
- Arizona at Cincinnati ARIZ 30–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Utah at Baylor UTAH 55–28 · replay 85% for the winner
- TCU at BYU BYU 44–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- UCF at Texas Tech TTU 48–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner