Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
UCF at Texas Tech, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat UCF 48–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 94% favorite.
Final
 UCF Knights | 9 |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Texas Tech about even · 0 UCF
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UCF wins 0, Texas Tech wins 10.
- 1 UCF 14 TTU 38
- 2 UCF 3 TTU 34
- 3 UCF 10 TTU 45
- 4 UCF 17 TTU 56
- 5 UCF 14 TTU 56
- 6 UCF 10 TTU 56
- 7 UCF 6 TTU 55
- 8 UCF 0 TTU 55
- 9 UCF 0 TTU 59
- 10 UCF 0 TTU 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UCF wins 0% of them, Texas Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UCF by 17+ | 0.0% |
| UCF by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| UCF by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 2.2% |
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 97.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Harrington, 45 yds made · 65% expected
- S. Harrington, 53 yds made · 52% expected
Penalties: UCF 7 for 45 yards, Texas Tech 7 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:24 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:00 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | 0% UCF +1.0 pts |
| Q2 14:55 | Illegal Substitution on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:38 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UCF +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:41 | Holding on Texas Tech, 2 yards | 0% UCF +0.1 pts |
| Q2 10:04 | Holding on UCF, 10 yards | 0% TTU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:08 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | 0% UCF +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:34 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UCF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:17 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:05 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | 0% UCF +1.1 pts |
| Q3 12:37 | Roughing the Passer on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% UCF +1.1 pts |
| Q3 10:51 | Offside on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:09 | Holding on UCF, 10 yards | 0% TTU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 13:20 | Offside on UCF, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% TTU +3.7 pts |
When it happened
Texas Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:25 | UCF fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% UCF | UCF: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:00 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UCF | UCF: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:25 | Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +0% UCF | TTU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:53 | UCF fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% UCF | UCF: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 2:44 | Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% UCF | TTU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:04 | Texas Tech converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 12:34 | UCF converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% UCF | UCF: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 13:20 | Offside on UCF, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +1% TTU | TTU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UCF 0% · Texas Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 39
- Luck in points
- 11.1 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 27.9
- Replay with same day's form
- UCF 0% · Texas Tech 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
UCF · 
Texas Tech
More from Week 12 2025
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- West Virginia at Arizona State ASU 25–23 · replay 56% for the winner
- Arizona at Cincinnati ARIZ 30–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Utah at Baylor UTAH 55–28 · replay 85% for the winner
- TCU at BYU BYU 44–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner