luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

TCU at BYU, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

BYU beat TCU 44–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, BYU wins 9 of 10.

An off day for TCU: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against BYU it would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff BYU was a 58% favorite.

Final

TCU Horned Frogs 13
BYU Cougars 44

November 15, 2025 · LaVell Edwards Stadium · Closing line: BYU −3

Luck index +11 BYU about even · −11 TCU

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. TCU wins 1, BYU wins 9.

  1. 1 TCU 23 BYU 17
  2. 2 TCU 21 BYU 24
  3. 3 TCU 21 BYU 28
  4. 4 TCU 24 BYU 34
  5. 5 TCU 14 BYU 28
  6. 6 TCU 13 BYU 30
  7. 7 TCU 14 BYU 34
  8. 8 TCU 7 BYU 31
  9. 9 TCU 7 BYU 37
  10. 10 TCU 10 BYU 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for TCU

Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against BYU it would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

31 points apart for TCU: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
TCU offenseEPA per play gained +0.19 +0.15 better by 0.04
TCU defenseEPA per play allowed +0.43 +0.04 worse by 0.39
BYU offenseEPA per play gained +0.43 +0.13 better by 0.30
BYU defenseEPA per play allowed +0.19 +0.06 worse by 0.13

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

TCU wins 11% of them, BYU 89%. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
TCU by 17+0.5%
TCU by 9–162.9%
TCU by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation0.4%
BYU by 1–817.0%
BYU by 9–1622.1%
BYU by 17+49.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.7 points to BYU: the final margin was BYU by 31, without the luck BYU by 22.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Ferrin, 52 yds made · 55% expected
  • N. McCashland, 22 yds made · 91% expected
  • W. Ferrin, 35 yds made · 85% expected
  • N. McCashland, 33 yds made · 81% expected
  • W. Ferrin, 29 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: TCU 4 for 30 yards, BYU 2 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:18 Pass Interference on TCU, 10 yards +2% BYU +1.5 pts
Q2 12:12 Holding on BYU, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% TCU +1.3 pts
Q2 5:29 Holding on TCU, 10 yards +1% BYU +1.8 pts
Q4 1:35 Pass Interference on BYU, 15 yards 0% TCU +0.9 pts
Q4 0:42 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BYU +0.3 pts
Q4 0:41 False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BYU +0.2 pts

When it happened

BYU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while BYU was ahead in it, below while TCU was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:46 BYU converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +2% BYU BYU: Field goal
2 Q1 10:40 BYU converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% BYU BYU: Field goal
3 Q1 10:33 BYU was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +2% TCU BYU: Field goal
4 Q1 10:27 W. Ferrin made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 12 of 19 from 45+ before +2% TCU BYU: End of half
5 Q1 8:44 TCU was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% BYU TCU: Punt
6 Q1 1:36 TCU was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +3% BYU TCU: Punt
7 Q2 12:18 Pass Interference on TCU, 10 yardsJudgment calls +2% BYU BYU: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:34 TCU converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +2% TCU TCU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

TCU 0% · BYU 100%

Final margin
BYU by 31
Luck in points
8.7 for BYU
Luck-adjusted margin
BYU by 22.3
Replay with same day's form
TCU 11% · BYU 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · TCU · BYU

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