luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

Arizona at Cincinnati, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Arizona beat Cincinnati 30–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Cincinnati was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:43 left): Cincinnati converted 4th & 6, worth 10 points of win probability to Cincinnati.

Final

Arizona Wildcats 30
Cincinnati Bearcats 24

November 15, 2025 · Nippert Stadium · Closing line: Cincinnati −5.5

Luck index +30 Arizona lucky · −30 Cincinnati

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arizona wins 7, Cincinnati wins 3.

  1. 1 ARIZ 45 CIN 14
  2. 2 ARIZ 31 CIN 10
  3. 3 ARIZ 38 CIN 21
  4. 4 ARIZ 24 CIN 10
  5. 5 ARIZ 30 CIN 20
  6. 6 ARIZ 31 CIN 24
  7. 7 ARIZ 16 CIN 13
  8. 8 ARIZ 27 CIN 30
  9. 9 ARIZ 23 CIN 31
  10. 10 ARIZ 10 CIN 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arizona wins 70% of them, Cincinnati 30%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arizona by 17+27.7%
Arizona by 9–1618.8%
Arizona by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation6.3%
Cincinnati by 1–814.2%
Cincinnati by 9–167.2%
Cincinnati by 17+5.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to Arizona: the final margin was Arizona by 6, without the luck Arizona by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Salgado-Medina, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 34 yds blocked · 81% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 24 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 25 yds made · 89% expected
  • S. Rusnak, 28 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Salgado-Medina, 51 yds made · 51% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Arizona 3 for 25 yards, Cincinnati 5 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:59 Kick Catch Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards +2% ARIZ +0.9 pts
Q1 2:57 Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards +2% ARIZ +1.0 pts
Q2 13:34 False Start on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q2 10:21 False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARIZ +0.6 pts
Q2 0:31 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 5:56 Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 11 yards +6% ARIZ +1.1 pts
Q4 1:47 Holding on Arizona, 10 yards +4% CIN +0.8 pts
Q4 1:32 Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 12 yards +2% ARIZ +0.4 pts

When it happened

Cincinnati’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Cincinnati was ahead in it, below while Arizona was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 11:40 Arizona converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +8% ARIZ ARIZ: Field goal
2 Q3 3:10 Cincinnati converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% CIN CIN: Field goal
3 Q4 11:56 Arizona converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% ARIZ ARIZ: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:53 Arizona converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% ARIZ ARIZ: Field goal
5 Q4 8:43 Cincinnati converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:56 Cincinnati converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:27 Arizona converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% ARIZ ARIZ: Field goal
8 Q4 1:34 M. Salgado-Medina made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 51% expected for him, 3 of 9 from 45+ before +8% ARIZ ARIZ: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arizona 73% · Cincinnati 27%

Final margin
Arizona by 6
Luck in points
1.8 for Arizona
Luck-adjusted margin
Arizona by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Arizona 70% · Cincinnati 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Arizona · Cincinnati

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