luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 14, 2025

Clemson at Louisville, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Clemson beat Louisville 20–19, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Louisville wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 38 points of win probability to Clemson.

Before kickoff Louisville was a 54% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:33 left): N. Keller missed a 46-yard field goal, worth 21 points of win probability to Clemson.

Final

Clemson Tigers 20
Louisville Cardinals 19

November 14, 2025 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Closing line: Louisville −1.5

Luck index +81 Clemson very lucky · −81 Louisville

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Clemson wins 2, Louisville wins 8.

  1. 1 CLEM 20 LOU 6
  2. 2 CLEM 21 LOU 17
  3. 3 CLEM 17 LOU 20
  4. 4 CLEM 8 LOU 14
  5. 5 CLEM 10 LOU 20
  6. 6 CLEM 10 LOU 23
  7. 7 CLEM 17 LOU 35
  8. 8 CLEM 10 LOU 31
  9. 9 CLEM 20 LOU 46
  10. 10 CLEM 10 LOU 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Clemson wins 19% of them, Louisville 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Clemson by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Clemson by 17+2.5%
Clemson by 9–165.1%
Clemson by 1–810.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Louisville by 1–819.0%
Louisville by 9–1619.4%
Louisville by 17+42.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to Clemson: the final margin was Clemson by 1, without the luck Louisville by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Hauser, 27 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 51 yds made · 55% expected
  • N. Hauser, 48 yds made · 57% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 39 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. Ranvier, 50 yds missed · 57% expected
  • N. Keller, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Clemson 3 for 30 yards, Louisville 11 for 85 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:16 Chop Block on Louisville, 13 yards +5% CLEM +2.3 pts
Q1 3:50 Personal Foul on Clemson, 15 yards +4% LOU +1.6 pts
Q1 0:43 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards +2% CLEM +0.8 pts
Q2 14:58 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% LOU +3.1 pts
Q3 4:44 Illegal Substitution on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLEM +0.5 pts
Q4 13:41 Horse Collar Tackle on Louisville, 10 yards +1% CLEM +0.4 pts
Q4 11:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 2 yards 0% CLEM +0.1 pts
Q4 11:24 Holding on Louisville, 1 yard, wiping out the play +6% CLEM +1.6 pts
Q4 11:24 Holding on Louisville, 1 yard, wiping out the play +4% CLEM +1.1 pts
Q4 2:31 False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CLEM +0.4 pts
Q4 1:54 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards +9% CLEM +0.9 pts
Q4 1:30 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards 0% CLEM +0.5 pts
Q4 0:39 Delay of Game on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LOU +0.2 pts
Q4 0:30 Holding on Louisville, 8 yards +4% CLEM +0.5 pts

When it happened

Louisville’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Louisville was ahead in it, below while Clemson was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 11:24 Holding on Louisville, 1 yard, wiping out the playJudgment callsHolding on Louisville, 1 yard, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CLEM CLEM: Touchdown
2 Q4 7:16 Clemson converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% CLEM CLEM: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 4:47 Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% CLEM LOU: Missed field goal
4 Q4 4:06 C. Ranvier missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 6 of 7 from 45+ before +17% CLEM LOU: Missed field goal
5 Q4 2:31 Clemson was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedFalse Start on Louisville, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +15% LOU CLEM: Punt
6 Q4 1:54 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% CLEM CLEM: Punt
7 Q4 1:33 The game turned hereN. Keller missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +21% CLEM LOU: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:03 Louisville was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +20% CLEM –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Clemson 28% · Louisville 72%

Final margin
Clemson by 1
Luck in points
5.2 for Clemson
Luck-adjusted margin
Louisville by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Clemson 19% · Louisville 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Clemson · Louisville

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