Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Virginia at Duke, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Virginia beat Duke 34–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Duke: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Virginia it would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff Duke was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:18 left): Pass Interference on Virginia, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to Duke.
Final
 Virginia Cavaliers | 34 |
|---|---|
 Duke Blue Devils | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Virginia about even · −4 Duke
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Virginia wins 10, Duke wins 0.
- 1 UVA 42 DUKE 0
- 2 UVA 34 DUKE 0
- 3 UVA 37 DUKE 7
- 4 UVA 34 DUKE 7
- 5 UVA 30 DUKE 7
- 6 UVA 41 DUKE 21
- 7 UVA 45 DUKE 28
- 8 UVA 16 DUKE 3
- 9 UVA 30 DUKE 21
- 10 UVA 21 DUKE 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Duke
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Virginia it would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
45 points apart for Duke: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.04 | better by 0.26 |
| Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.45 | +0.08 | better by 0.53 |
| Duke offenseEPA per play gained | −0.45 | +0.10 | worse by 0.55 |
| Duke defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.12 | worse by 0.17 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Virginia wins 96% of them, Duke 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Virginia by 17+ | 69.1% |
| Virginia by 9–16 | 16.9% |
| Virginia by 1–8 | 9.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 2.2% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| Duke by 17+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Pelino, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- W. Bettridge, 44 yds made · 67% expected
- W. Bettridge, 42 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Virginia 7 for 60 yards, Duke 3 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:04 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | +2% DUKE +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:43 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | +2% DUKE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:38 | Illegal Substitution on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DUKE +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:04 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | +2% DUKE +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:39 | Personal Foul on Duke, 15 yards | +4% UVA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Pass Interference on Virginia, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +9% DUKE +4.9 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.1 pts |
| Q3 1:15 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Duke, 15 yards | 0% UVA +2.9 pts |
| Q4 8:01 | Face Mask on Duke, 15 yards | +1% UVA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:51 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Duke’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:12 | Virginia converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +5% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:48 | Virginia converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +5% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:47 | Virginia converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 14:53 | Virginia converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% UVA | UVA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 11:22 | Virginia was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +9% DUKE | UVA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:54 | Virginia converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +4% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 0:18 | Pass Interference on Virginia, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% DUKE | DUKE: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 5:34 | Duke converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedDuke fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% DUKE | DUKE: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Virginia 90% · Duke 10%
- Final margin
- Virginia by 17
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia by 9.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Virginia 96% · Duke 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Virginia · 
Duke
More from Week 12 2025
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Boston College GT 36–34 · replay 70% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ND 37–15 · replay 85% for the winner
- North Carolina at Wake Forest WAKE 28–12 · replay 89% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Florida State FSU 34–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- NC State at Miami MIA 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner