Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Virginia Tech at Florida State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida State beat Virginia Tech 34–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida State was an 83% favorite.
Final
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 14 |
|---|---|
 Florida State Seminoles | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Florida State about even · −10 Virginia Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Virginia Tech wins 1, Florida State wins 9.
- 1 VT 31 FSU 24
- 2 VT 21 FSU 24
- 3 VT 14 FSU 20
- 4 VT 21 FSU 30
- 5 VT 16 FSU 28
- 6 VT 7 FSU 21
- 7 VT 14 FSU 31
- 8 VT 9 FSU 30
- 9 VT 17 FSU 42
- 10 VT 0 FSU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Virginia Tech wins 10% of them, Florida State 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida State by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Virginia Tech by 17+ | 1.0% |
| Virginia Tech by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Virginia Tech by 1–8 | 6.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Florida State by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Florida State by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| Florida State by 17+ | 47.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Weinberg, 34 yds missed · 82% expected
- J. Love, 54 yds missed · 52% expected
- J. Weinberg, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- J. Weinberg, 34 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Virginia Tech 7 for 55 yards, Florida State 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 11:53 | Roughing the Passer on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +4% FSU +3.3 pts |
| Q1 0:43 | False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:49 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% FSU +2.3 pts |
| Q3 12:55 | Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +4% FSU +2.5 pts |
| Q3 5:41 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:41 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Virginia Tech, 0 yards | 0% FSU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:31 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FSU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Florida State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:53 | Roughing the Passer on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% FSU | FSU: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:45 | J. Weinberg missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +4% VT | FSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 3:20 | Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +3% FSU | VT: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q1 2:46 | J. Love missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 10 of 16 from 45+ before | +3% FSU | VT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 3:11 | Florida State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 0:49 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 14:09 | Florida State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 12:55 | Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Virginia Tech 1% · Florida State 99%
- Final margin
- Florida State by 20
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for Florida State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida State by 14.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Virginia Tech 10% · Florida State 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Virginia Tech · 
Florida State
More from Week 12 2025
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Boston College GT 36–34 · replay 70% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ND 37–15 · replay 85% for the winner
- North Carolina at Wake Forest WAKE 28–12 · replay 89% for the winner
- Virginia at Duke UVA 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- NC State at Miami MIA 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner