Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
North Carolina at Wake Forest, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Wake Forest beat North Carolina 28–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wake Forest wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Wake Forest was a 59% favorite.
Final
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 12 |
|---|---|
 Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Wake Forest about even · −11 North Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Carolina wins 1, Wake Forest wins 9.
- 1 UNC 7 WAKE 0
- 2 UNC 21 WAKE 24
- 3 UNC 28 WAKE 35
- 4 UNC 10 WAKE 21
- 5 UNC 21 WAKE 36
- 6 UNC 10 WAKE 28
- 7 UNC 21 WAKE 42
- 8 UNC 10 WAKE 35
- 9 UNC 13 WAKE 42
- 10 UNC 3 WAKE 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Carolina wins 11% of them, Wake Forest 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Carolina by 17+ | 0.7% |
| North Carolina by 9–16 | 2.2% |
| North Carolina by 1–8 | 7.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Wake Forest by 1–8 | 13.9% |
| Wake Forest by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Wake Forest by 17+ | 54.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Verhoff, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- R. Verhoff, 39 yds blocked · 76% expected
- R. Verhoff, 57 yds made · 44% expected
- R. Verhoff, 42 yds made · 70% expected
- R. Verhoff, 45 yds blocked · 65% expected
- R. Verhoff, 47 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: North Carolina 4 for 45 yards, Wake Forest 3 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:57 | False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAKE +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Roughing the Passer on North Carolina, 14 yards | +3% WAKE +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yards | +2% WAKE +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:15 | Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 15 yards | +3% UNC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:29 | Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards | +2% UNC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:07 | Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards | +2% UNC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:02 | Personal Foul on North Carolina, 11 yards | +3% WAKE +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Wake Forest’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:14 | North Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% UNC | UNC: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:26 | Wake Forest converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% WAKE | WAKE: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:38 | Wake Forest converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% WAKE | WAKE: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 13:32 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +4% WAKE | UNC: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 10:00 | Wake Forest fumbled and North Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% UNC | WAKE: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:55 | Roughing the Passer on North Carolina, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +3% WAKE | WAKE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 2:35 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +3% WAKE | UNC: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q3 2:01 | North Carolina converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +4% UNC | UNC: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Carolina 1% · Wake Forest 99%
- Final margin
- Wake Forest by 16
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for Wake Forest
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wake Forest by 15.8
- Replay with same day's form
- North Carolina 11% · Wake Forest 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
North Carolina · 
Wake Forest
More from Week 12 2025
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Boston College GT 36–34 · replay 70% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ND 37–15 · replay 85% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Florida State FSU 34–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Virginia at Duke UVA 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- NC State at Miami MIA 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner