ACC · 2026 season, in progress

North Carolina Tar Heels: luck and expected wins

North Carolina is 2–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.0 wins. Luck cost 0.0: the 55th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often North Carolina wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs TCU	W 15–10	75%	+25
Week 2	vs East Tennessee State	W 35–3	100%	0
Week 3	@ Clemson	L 20–28	30%	−30

Wk 1 +25 vs TCU

Wk 2 0 vs ETSU

Wk 3 −30 @ CLEM

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	North Carolina win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Notre Dame	Notre Dame by 24.4	6%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh by 14.9	18%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Duke	Duke by 13.6	20%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Syracuse	North Carolina by 5.9	64%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Miami	Miami by 19.0	13%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at UConn	UConn by 1.5	46%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Louisville	Louisville by 5.8	37%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Virginia	Virginia by 13.9	21%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs NC State	NC State by 0.6	49%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in North Carolina’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.22	+7.7
Kicks	−0.10	−7.3
Fumble bounces	−0.15	−1.7

Luckiest wins

Wins North Carolina takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	vs Stanford	W 20–15	34%	+66
2026 Week 1	vs TCU	W 15–10	75%	+25
2025 Week 2	@ Charlotte	W 20–3	76%	+24
2025 Week 10	@ Syracuse	W 27–10	94%	+6
2025 Week 3	vs Richmond	W 41–6	99%	+1

Unluckiest losses

Losses North Carolina would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 13	vs Duke	L 25–32	87%	−87
2025 Week 9	vs Virginia	L 16–17	85%	−85
2026 Week 3	@ Clemson	L 20–28	30%	−30
2025 Week 8	@ California	L 18–21	29%	−29
2025 Week 6	vs Clemson	L 10–38	13%	−13

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	5.4	−1.4	1–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs TCU	L 14–48	1%	−1
Week 2	@ Charlotte	W 20–3	76%	+24
Week 3	vs Richmond	W 41–6	99%	+1
Week 4	@ UCF	L 9–34	9%	−9
Week 6	vs Clemson	L 10–38	13%	−13
Week 8	@ California	L 18–21	29%	−29
Week 9	vs Virginia	L 16–17	85%	−85
Week 10	@ Syracuse	W 27–10	94%	+6
Week 11	vs Stanford	W 20–15	34%	+66
Week 12	@ Wake Forest	L 12–28	11%	−11
Week 13	vs Duke	L 25–32	87%	−87
Week 14	@ NC State	L 19–42	3%	−3