luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 17, 2025

North Carolina at California, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

California beat North Carolina 21–18, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. North Carolina had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to North Carolina.

Before kickoff California was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:48 left): North Carolina fumbled and California recovered, worth 13 points of win probability to California.

Final

North Carolina Tar Heels 18
California Golden Bears 21

October 17, 2025 · California Memorial Stadium · Closing line: California −7.5

Luck index +29 California lucky · −29 North Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Carolina wins 3, California wins 7.

  1. 1 UNC 21 CAL 3
  2. 2 UNC 31 CAL 21
  3. 3 UNC 14 CAL 12
  4. 4 UNC 10 CAL 13
  5. 5 UNC 17 CAL 22
  6. 6 UNC 16 CAL 24
  7. 7 UNC 9 CAL 20
  8. 8 UNC 10 CAL 25
  9. 9 UNC 3 CAL 22
  10. 10 UNC 3 CAL 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Carolina wins 29% of them, California 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: California by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Carolina by 17+4.4%
North Carolina by 9–168.1%
North Carolina by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation3.7%
California by 1–824.6%
California by 9–1620.4%
California by 17+24.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to California: the final margin was California by 3, without the luck California by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: North Carolina 4 for 46 yards, California 8 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:51 False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAL +0.6 pts
Q1 7:44 False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNC +0.6 pts
Q1 4:57 Holding on California, 10 yards +2% UNC +1.1 pts
Q1 1:47 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Carolina, 12 yards +3% CAL +1.5 pts
Q1 0:35 Delay of Game on California, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UNC +1.0 pts
Q2 3:56 False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNC +0.5 pts
Q3 9:26 Pass Interference on North Carolina, 14 yards +5% CAL +2.9 pts
Q3 0:43 Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yards +3% CAL +1.9 pts
Q4 14:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on California, 15 yards +3% UNC +1.6 pts
Q4 13:48 Holding on California, 10 yards +2% UNC +1.2 pts
Q4 11:38 Holding on California, 10 yards +7% UNC +1.7 pts
Q4 6:48 Holding on California, 10 yards +12% UNC +2.2 pts

When it happened

California’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while California was ahead in it, below while North Carolina was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 9:26 Pass Interference on North Carolina, 14 yardsJudgment calls +5% CAL CAL: Touchdown
2 Q4 12:14 North Carolina converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedNorth Carolina’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +11% UNC UNC: Turnover
3 Q4 11:38 Holding on California, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% UNC UNC: Turnover
4 Q4 9:08 North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% CAL UNC: Turnover
5 Q4 8:25 North Carolina converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% UNC UNC: Turnover
6 Q4 6:48 Holding on California, 10 yardsJudgment calls +12% UNC UNC: Turnover
7 Q4 5:20 North Carolina converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% UNC UNC: Turnover
8 Q4 3:48 North Carolina fumbled and California recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% CAL UNC: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Carolina 49% · California 51%

Final margin
California by 3
Luck in points
2.8 for California
Luck-adjusted margin
California by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
North Carolina 29% · California 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · North Carolina · California

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