Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Pittsburgh at Syracuse, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Pittsburgh beat Syracuse 30–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Pittsburgh wins 4 of 10.
Before kickoff Pittsburgh was a 73% favorite.
Final
 Pittsburgh Panthers | 30 |
|---|---|
 Syracuse Orange | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Pittsburgh lucky · −57 Syracuse
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Pittsburgh wins 4, Syracuse wins 6.
- 1 PITT 16 SYR 0
- 2 PITT 17 SYR 7
- 3 PITT 7 SYR 0
- 4 PITT 9 SYR 7
- 5 PITT 10 SYR 12
- 6 PITT 0 SYR 5
- 7 PITT 3 SYR 10
- 8 PITT 3 SYR 15
- 9 PITT 3 SYR 19
- 10 PITT 10 SYR 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Pittsburgh wins 43% of them, Syracuse 57%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh by 17+ | 4.6% |
| Pittsburgh by 9–16 | 12.8% |
| Pittsburgh by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 27.9% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 17.4% |
| Syracuse by 17+ | 11.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Butkowski, 31 yds made · 87% expected
- T. Butkowski, 42 yds made · 71% expected
- T. Butkowski, 32 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Pittsburgh 13 for 114 yards, Syracuse 12 for 107 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:22 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SYR +0.8 pts |
| Q1 11:43 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | +1% PITT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:46 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SYR +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:07 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PITT +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:36 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SYR +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:25 | Personal Foul on Syracuse, 15 yards | +6% PITT +3.1 pts |
| Q2 7:42 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | +3% PITT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:36 | Personal Foul on Pittsburgh, 12 yards | +3% SYR +1.5 pts |
| Q2 3:17 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SYR +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:36 | Personal Foul on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +2% SYR +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | +1% SYR +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:31 | Personal Foul on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | 0% SYR +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:47 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | +1% SYR +0.4 pts |
| Q3 0:02 | Offside on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 10:13 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | +1% PITT +2.0 pts |
| Q4 9:49 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | 0% PITT +1.4 pts |
| Q4 6:42 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 2 yards | +1% SYR +1.1 pts |
| Q4 6:37 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | +1% PITT +1.8 pts |
| Q4 6:09 | Offside on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SYR +0.7 pts |
| Q4 6:09 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PITT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:55 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | +1% PITT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:38 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:30 | Personal Foul on Syracuse, 12 yards | 0% PITT +1.5 pts |
| Q4 4:03 | Illegal Use of Hands on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | 0% SYR +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:51 | Personal Foul on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | 0% SYR +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Syracuse’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:49 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +3% SYR | PITT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:54 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +3% SYR | SYR: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:25 | Personal Foul on Syracuse, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% PITT | PITT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:52 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +4% PITT | PITT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 11:39 | Pittsburgh was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% SYR | PITT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 7:42 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% PITT | PITT: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 6:32 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% PITT | SYR: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 5:36 | Personal Foul on Pittsburgh, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +3% SYR | SYR: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Pittsburgh 99% · Syracuse 1%
- Final margin
- Pittsburgh by 17
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for Pittsburgh
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Pittsburgh by 13.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Pittsburgh 43% · Syracuse 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Pittsburgh · 
Syracuse
More from Week 8 2025
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Florida State at Stanford STAN 20–13 · replay 54% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Duke GT 27–18 · replay 62% for the winner
- SMU at Clemson SMU 35–24 · replay 65% for the winner
- North Carolina at California CAL 21–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- UConn at Boston College CONN 38–23 · replay 72% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner