Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Georgia Tech at Duke, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Tech beat Duke 27–18, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Duke was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:46 left): Return touchdown by Georgia Tech, worth 42 points of win probability to Georgia Tech.
Final
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 27 |
|---|---|
 Duke Blue Devils | 18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Georgia Tech lucky · −38 Duke
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Tech wins 6, Duke wins 4.
- 1 GT 45 DUKE 20
- 2 GT 24 DUKE 7
- 3 GT 31 DUKE 20
- 4 GT 23 DUKE 14
- 5 GT 30 DUKE 24
- 6 GT 17 DUKE 14
- 7 GT 24 DUKE 27
- 8 GT 20 DUKE 27
- 9 GT 27 DUKE 38
- 10 GT 16 DUKE 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Tech wins 62% of them, Duke 38%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Tech by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 19.6% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Level after regulation | 7.8% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 17.0% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 9.0% |
| Duke by 17+ | 6.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Pelino, 23 yds made · 93% expected
- A. Birr, 40 yds made · 75% expected
- A. Birr, 23 yds made · 95% expected
- T. Pelino, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
Penalties: Georgia Tech 4 for 17 yards, Duke 7 for 61 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:54 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DUKE +0.7 pts |
| Q1 12:01 | Offside on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% GT +2.8 pts |
| Q2 10:05 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GT +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:10 | Offside on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.2 pts |
| Q3 8:23 | Delay of Game on Georgia Tech, 2 yards · pre-snap | +10% DUKE +3.8 pts |
| Q3 6:28 | Illegal Substitution on Duke, 4 yards · pre-snap | +4% GT +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:49 | Pass Interference on Duke, 15 yards | +7% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:56 | Intentional Grounding on Duke, 7 yards | +8% GT +1.7 pts |
| Q4 4:46 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | +2% GT +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:52 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:36 | Personal Foul on Duke, 15 yards | 0% GT +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Duke’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:46 | Duke fumbled and Georgia Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Georgia TechSpecial teams | +42% GT | DUKE: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 0:57 | Duke converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +8% DUKE | DUKE: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 8:23 | Delay of Game on Georgia Tech, 2 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% DUKE | DUKE: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 13:49 | Pass Interference on Duke, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 12:48 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +9% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 11:04 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +6% DUKE | GT: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 10:56 | Intentional Grounding on Duke, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +8% GT | GT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 6:48 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% GT | GT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Tech 77% · Duke 23%
- Final margin
- Georgia Tech by 9
- Luck in points
- 3.3 for Georgia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Tech by 5.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Tech 62% · Duke 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Georgia Tech · 
Duke
More from Week 8 2025
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Syracuse PITT 30–13 · replay 43% for the winner
- Florida State at Stanford STAN 20–13 · replay 54% for the winner
- SMU at Clemson SMU 35–24 · replay 65% for the winner
- North Carolina at California CAL 21–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- UConn at Boston College CONN 38–23 · replay 72% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner