Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
SMU at Clemson, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
SMU beat Clemson 35–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Clemson had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Clemson.
Before kickoff Clemson was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:44 left): Clemson converted 4th & 21, worth 11 points of win probability to Clemson.
Final
 SMU Mustangs | 35 |
|---|---|
 Clemson Tigers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 SMU lucky · −35 Clemson
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. SMU wins 7, Clemson wins 3.
- 1 SMU 47 CLEM 14
- 2 SMU 49 CLEM 23
- 3 SMU 23 CLEM 3
- 4 SMU 24 CLEM 8
- 5 SMU 31 CLEM 20
- 6 SMU 23 CLEM 16
- 7 SMU 20 CLEM 17
- 8 SMU 35 CLEM 38
- 9 SMU 6 CLEM 15
- 10 SMU 13 CLEM 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
SMU wins 65% of them, Clemson 35%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| SMU by 17+ | 26.2% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Clemson by 1–8 | 15.1% |
| Clemson by 9–16 | 9.1% |
| Clemson by 17+ | 6.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Keltner, 51 yds made · 51% expected
- S. Keltner, 48 yds made · 57% expected
- S. Keltner, 48 yds made · 57% expected
- N. Hauser, 28 yds made · 87% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: SMU 4 for 45 yards, Clemson 2 for 9 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:02 | False Start on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLEM +0.8 pts |
| Q1 8:38 | False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:29 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +3% CLEM +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMU, 15 yards | +3% CLEM +1.1 pts |
| Q4 9:32 | Unnecessary Roughness on SMU, 15 yards | +3% CLEM +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:39 | Pass Interference on Clemson, 4 yards | +5% SMU +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Clemson’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:46 | Clemson fumbled and SMU recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SMU | CLEM: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 6:09 | SMU converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% SMU | SMU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 2:53 | Clemson was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +7% SMU | CLEM: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 8:48 | Clemson converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% CLEM | CLEM: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 4:07 | Clemson converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +8% CLEM | CLEM: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 2:28 | Clemson converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +6% CLEM | CLEM: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 0:38 | Clemson converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +7% CLEM | CLEM: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 6:44 | Clemson converted 4th & 213rd & 4th downs · 12% expected | +11% CLEM | CLEM: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
SMU 91% · Clemson 9%
- Final margin
- SMU by 11
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for SMU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SMU by 9.5
- Replay with same day's form
- SMU 65% · Clemson 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
SMU · 
Clemson
More from Week 8 2025
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Syracuse PITT 30–13 · replay 43% for the winner
- Florida State at Stanford STAN 20–13 · replay 54% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Duke GT 27–18 · replay 62% for the winner
- North Carolina at California CAL 21–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- UConn at Boston College CONN 38–23 · replay 72% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner