Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
UConn at Boston College, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
UConn beat Boston College 38–23, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff UConn was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:50 left): Boston College converted 4th & 7, worth 9 points of win probability to Boston College.
Final
 UConn Huskies | 38 |
|---|---|
 Boston College Eagles | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 UConn lucky · −28 Boston College
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UConn wins 7, Boston College wins 3.
- 1 CONN 34 BC 0
- 2 CONN 38 BC 14
- 3 CONN 31 BC 12
- 4 CONN 24 BC 10
- 5 CONN 31 BC 21
- 6 CONN 19 BC 13
- 7 CONN 35 BC 33
- 8 CONN 14 BC 17
- 9 CONN 14 BC 22
- 10 CONN 23 BC 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UConn wins 72% of them, Boston College 28%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UConn by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UConn by 17+ | 30.9% |
| UConn by 9–16 | 17.8% |
| UConn by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.4% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 13.2% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 8.1% |
| Boston College by 17+ | 4.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Lombardo, 47 yds made · 62% expected
- L. Lombardo, 22 yds made · 96% expected
- C. Freeman, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- L. Lombardo, 25 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: UConn 8 for 107 yards, Boston College 8 for 95 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:08 | Offside on Boston College, 15 yards · pre-snap | +3% CONN +1.6 pts |
| Q1 8:02 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | +1% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:37 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UConn, 50 yards | +8% BC +3.8 pts |
| Q1 6:16 | Holding on Boston College, 0 yards | 0% CONN 0.0 pts |
| Q1 1:28 | Pass Interference on UConn, 7 yards | +3% BC +1.2 pts |
| Q1 0:23 | Ineligible Downfield on UConn, 5 yards | +1% BC +0.3 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Personal Foul on Boston College, 15 yards | +2% CONN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:31 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boston College, 45 yards | +7% CONN +2.8 pts |
| Q2 1:56 | Holding on UConn, 0 yards | 0% BC 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:51 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CONN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:37 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CONN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:29 | Holding on Boston College, 10 yards | +2% CONN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:05 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | +2% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:25 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | +2% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:43 | Personal Foul on UConn, 15 yards | +3% BC +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:07 | Intentional Grounding on Boston College, 0 yards | 0% CONN 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Boston College’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 52%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:07 | Boston College converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +7% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 6:37 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UConn, 50 yardsJudgment calls | +8% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 13:57 | UConn converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 0:47 | Boston College converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% BC | BC: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 10:03 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% CONN | BC: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 15:00 | Boston College converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +6% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 13:50 | Boston College converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +9% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:51 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +6% CONN | BC: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UConn 100% · Boston College 0%
- Final margin
- UConn by 15
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for Boston College
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UConn by 16.3
- Replay with same day's form
- UConn 72% · Boston College 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
UConn · 
Boston College
More from Week 8 2025
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Syracuse PITT 30–13 · replay 43% for the winner
- Florida State at Stanford STAN 20–13 · replay 54% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Duke GT 27–18 · replay 62% for the winner
- SMU at Clemson SMU 35–24 · replay 65% for the winner
- North Carolina at California CAL 21–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- USC at Notre Dame ND 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner