luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

USC at Notre Dame, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Notre Dame beat USC 34–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. USC had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to USC.

Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 75% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:50 left): USC converted 3rd & 9, worth 11 points of win probability to USC.

Final

USC Trojans 24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 34

October 18, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium · Closing line: Notre Dame −10.5

Luck index +27 Notre Dame lucky · −27 USC

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. USC wins 3, Notre Dame wins 7.

  1. 1 USC 55 ND 34
  2. 2 USC 52 ND 41
  3. 3 USC 45 ND 41
  4. 4 USC 10 ND 13
  5. 5 USC 27 ND 34
  6. 6 USC 24 ND 34
  7. 7 USC 13 ND 27
  8. 8 USC 23 ND 41
  9. 9 USC 28 ND 50
  10. 10 USC 13 ND 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

USC wins 27% of them, Notre Dame 73%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
USC by 17+5.4%
USC by 9–167.4%
USC by 1–812.0%
Level after regulation2.7%
Notre Dame by 1–821.9%
Notre Dame by 9–1618.6%
Notre Dame by 17+32.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.1 points to USC: the final margin was Notre Dame by 10, without the luck Notre Dame by 20.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Sayeri, 42 yds made · 70% expected
  • R. Sayeri, 24 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Sayeri, 43 yds made · 68% expected
  • N. Burnette, 31 yds missed · 87% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: USC 1 for 5 yards, Notre Dame 8 for 96 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:22 Offside on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% USC +1.0 pts
Q1 11:25 False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ND +0.8 pts
Q2 14:05 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% USC +3.4 pts
Q2 5:15 Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 15 yards +2% USC +1.0 pts
Q2 2:31 Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 15 yards +4% USC +1.9 pts
Q2 1:07 Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 15 yards +1% USC +0.5 pts
Q3 7:58 Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 15 yards +2% USC +1.2 pts
Q3 7:19 Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 15 yards +4% USC +1.6 pts
Q3 5:12 Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 6 yards +4% USC +1.5 pts

When it happened

Notre Dame’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Notre Dame was ahead in it, below while USC was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:31 USC converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% USC USC: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:05 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% USC USC: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 2:31 Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% USC USC: Field goal
4 Q3 9:24 Notre Dame converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% ND ND: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:32 USC’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% USC USC: Turnover
6 Q3 2:24 USC converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% USC USC: Turnover
7 Q4 12:48 Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% USC ND: Missed field goal
8 Q4 11:50 USC converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% USC USC: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

USC 0% · Notre Dame 100%

Final margin
Notre Dame by 10
Luck in points
10.1 for USC
Luck-adjusted margin
Notre Dame by 20.1
Replay with same day's form
USC 27% · Notre Dame 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · USC · Notre Dame

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