Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Penn State at Iowa, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa beat Penn State 25–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa wins 9 of 10. Penn State had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Penn State.
An off day for Penn State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Iowa it would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers
Before kickoff Iowa was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:14 left): Penn State was stopped on 4th & 4, worth 18 points of win probability to Iowa.
Final
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 24 |
|---|---|
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Iowa about even · −5 Penn State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Penn State wins 1, Iowa wins 9.
- 1 PSU 34 IOWA 28
- 2 PSU 0 IOWA 3
- 3 PSU 10 IOWA 17
- 4 PSU 0 IOWA 10
- 5 PSU 3 IOWA 17
- 6 PSU 3 IOWA 21
- 7 PSU 3 IOWA 24
- 8 PSU 0 IOWA 24
- 9 PSU 7 IOWA 35
- 10 PSU 7 IOWA 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Penn State
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Iowa it would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for Penn State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.10 | worse by 0.12 |
| Penn State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.04 | worse by 0.06 |
| Iowa offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.03 | better by 0.07 |
| Iowa defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.04 | better by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Penn State wins 5% of them, Iowa 95%. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Penn State by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 3.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 14.7% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 19.9% |
| Iowa by 17+ | 59.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Stevens, 39 yds made · 76% expected
- D. Stevens, 46 yds missed · 64% expected
- E. Washington II, 65 yds blocked · 33% expected
- D. Stevens, 31 yds made · 87% expected
- R. Barker, 32 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Penn State 2 for 24 yards, Iowa 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:04 | Offside on Iowa, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% PSU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2:14 | False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:49 | Intentional Grounding on Penn State, 9 yards | +5% IOWA +2.3 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Personal Foul on Penn State, 15 yards | +2% IOWA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:53 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yards | +7% PSU +2.4 pts |
When it happened
Iowa’s chance of winning
As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:47 | Penn State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +7% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 0:12 | Penn State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +15% IOWA | PSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 12:21 | Penn State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +8% PSU | PSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 9:45 | Penn State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PSU | PSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 9:29 | Penn State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +11% PSU | PSU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 3:54 | Iowa’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% PSU | IOWA: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 1:14 | Penn State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +18% IOWA | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:44 | Iowa converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +11% PSU | IOWA: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Penn State 10% · Iowa 90%
- Final margin
- Iowa by 1
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Penn State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa by 8.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Penn State 5% · Iowa 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Penn State · 
Iowa
More from Week 8 2025
- USC at Notre Dame ND 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Purdue at Northwestern NU 19–0 · replay 77% for the winner
- Maryland at UCLA UCLA 20–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington at Michigan MICH 24–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Nebraska at Minnesota MINN 24–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Ohio State at Wisconsin OSU 34–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oregon at Rutgers ORE 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Michigan State at Indiana IU 38–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner