Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Michigan State at Indiana, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Michigan State 38–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Indiana was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Michigan State Spartans | 13 |
|---|---|
 Indiana Hoosiers | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Indiana about even · 0 Michigan State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Michigan State wins 0, Indiana wins 10.
- 1 MSU 16 IU 28
- 2 MSU 7 IU 27
- 3 MSU 21 IU 45
- 4 MSU 14 IU 42
- 5 MSU 3 IU 34
- 6 MSU 10 IU 45
- 7 MSU 14 IU 49
- 8 MSU 3 IU 42
- 9 MSU 0 IU 42
- 10 MSU 0 IU 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Michigan State wins 0% of them, Indiana 100%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Michigan State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Indiana by 17+ | 96.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Connington, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- M. Connington, 50 yds missed · 55% expected
- N. Radicic, 31 yds made · 87% expected
- M. Connington, 34 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Michigan State 6 for 57 yards, Indiana 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:35 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:33 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% IU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 13:48 | Pass Interference on Michigan State, 11 yards | 0% IU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 3:24 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | 0% IU +2.9 pts |
| Q3 2:57 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | 0% IU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:54 | Ineligible Downfield on Indiana, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:31 | Intentional Grounding on Michigan State, 11 yards | 0% IU +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Indiana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:28 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +1% MSU | MSU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:19 | Michigan State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +1% MSU | MSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 7:09 | Indiana converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:05 | Michigan State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +2% MSU | MSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 10:33 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 9:22 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +2% MSU | MSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 3:32 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +1% IU | MSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 1:06 | Indiana converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +1% IU | IU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Michigan State 0% · Indiana 100%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 25
- Luck in points
- 1.6 for Michigan State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Indiana by 26.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Michigan State 0% · Indiana 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Michigan State · 
Indiana
More from Week 8 2025
- USC at Notre Dame ND 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Purdue at Northwestern NU 19–0 · replay 77% for the winner
- Maryland at UCLA UCLA 20–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington at Michigan MICH 24–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Nebraska at Minnesota MINN 24–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Penn State at Iowa IOWA 25–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ohio State at Wisconsin OSU 34–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oregon at Rutgers ORE 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner