Week 8 2025 · October 17, 2025
Nebraska at Minnesota, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Minnesota beat Nebraska 24–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Minnesota wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Nebraska: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Minnesota it would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers
Before kickoff Nebraska was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:08 left): Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to Minnesota.
Final
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 6 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Minnesota about even · −9 Nebraska
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nebraska wins 1, Minnesota wins 9.
- 1 NEB 20 MINN 14
- 2 NEB 14 MINN 17
- 3 NEB 24 MINN 31
- 4 NEB 10 MINN 21
- 5 NEB 6 MINN 20
- 6 NEB 3 MINN 21
- 7 NEB 10 MINN 31
- 8 NEB 3 MINN 28
- 9 NEB 7 MINN 35
- 10 NEB 0 MINN 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Nebraska
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Minnesota it would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for Nebraska: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska offenseEPA per play gained | −0.27 | +0.08 | worse by 0.35 |
| Nebraska defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.04 | worse by 0.18 |
| Minnesota offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.07 | better by 0.16 |
| Minnesota defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.27 | +0.01 | better by 0.28 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nebraska wins 9% of them, Minnesota 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Minnesota by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nebraska by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 5.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 18.2% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 17.8% |
| Minnesota by 17+ | 54.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Cunanan, 33 yds made · 84% expected
- K. Cunanan, 30 yds made · 88% expected
- B. Denaburg, 30 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Nebraska 5 for 50 yards, Minnesota 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:24 | Offside on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MINN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2:28 | Pass Interference on Minnesota, 15 yards | +4% NEB +1.9 pts |
| Q2 14:54 | Holding on Minnesota, 10 yards | +1% NEB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:21 | False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEB +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:23 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yards | +12% MINN +3.3 pts |
| Q4 14:08 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +14% MINN +4.8 pts |
| Q4 8:51 | Offside on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MINN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:31 | Face Mask on Nebraska, 15 yards | 0% MINN +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Minnesota’s chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:04 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +4% NEB | NEB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 3:22 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% MINN | MINN: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 9:56 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +4% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 3:28 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +6% NEB | MINN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 3:23 | Holding on Nebraska, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +12% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 1:01 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% MINN | NEB: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 14:08 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +14% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:13 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nebraska 0% · Minnesota 100%
- Final margin
- Minnesota by 18
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Minnesota
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Minnesota by 13.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Nebraska 9% · Minnesota 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Nebraska · 
Minnesota
More from Week 8 2025
- USC at Notre Dame ND 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Purdue at Northwestern NU 19–0 · replay 77% for the winner
- Maryland at UCLA UCLA 20–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington at Michigan MICH 24–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Penn State at Iowa IOWA 25–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ohio State at Wisconsin OSU 34–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oregon at Rutgers ORE 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Michigan State at Indiana IU 38–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner