Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Maryland at UCLA, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
UCLA beat Maryland 20–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UCLA wins 8 of 10. Maryland had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Maryland.
Before kickoff UCLA was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:59 left): UCLA converted 4th & 10, worth 28 points of win probability to UCLA.
Final
 Maryland Terrapins | 17 |
|---|---|
 UCLA Bruins | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 UCLA about even · −18 Maryland
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maryland wins 2, UCLA wins 8.
- 1 MD 32 UCLA 17
- 2 MD 37 UCLA 34
- 3 MD 19 UCLA 21
- 4 MD 14 UCLA 20
- 5 MD 10 UCLA 20
- 6 MD 10 UCLA 23
- 7 MD 10 UCLA 26
- 8 MD 10 UCLA 30
- 9 MD 16 UCLA 41
- 10 MD 6 UCLA 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maryland wins 18% of them, UCLA 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCLA by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maryland by 17+ | 2.7% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 5.6% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 9.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| UCLA by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| UCLA by 9–16 | 19.0% |
| UCLA by 17+ | 40.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 24 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Bhaghani, 56 yds missed · 47% expected
- M. Bhaghani, 42 yds made · 71% expected
- M. Bhaghani, 23 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Maryland 6 for 60 yards, UCLA 10 for 85 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:52 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 0 yards | 0% UCLA 0.0 pts |
| Q1 7:29 | Delay of Game on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:32 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards | +4% MD +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:52 | Holding on UCLA, 8 yards | +1% MD +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:07 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCLA, 4 yards | +1% MD +0.2 pts |
| Q2 2:12 | Personal Foul on Maryland, 15 yards | +2% UCLA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:40 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards | +4% MD +1.6 pts |
| Q3 4:40 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +10% MD +3.8 pts |
| Q3 3:11 | Holding on UCLA, 10 yards | +2% MD +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:20 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards | +5% UCLA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:15 | Illegal Block on UCLA, 10 yards | +3% MD +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:55 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MD +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:18 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 15 yards | +11% UCLA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:59 | Personal Foul on Maryland, 15 yards | +6% UCLA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:18 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:50 | Holding on UCLA, 8 yards | +2% MD +1.2 pts |
When it happened
UCLA’s chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 7:23 | Maryland converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% MD | MD: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q3 5:16 | Maryland was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +9% UCLA | MD: End of half |
| 3 | Q4 13:07 | UCLA fumbled and Maryland recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% MD | UCLA: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 8:28 | UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +9% MD | UCLA: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 7:44 | M. Bhaghani missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 8 of 11 from 45+ before | +9% MD | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:18 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +11% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:59 | UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedUCLA converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedPersonal Foul on Maryland, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +28% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 3:33 | UCLA converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +13% UCLA | UCLA: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maryland 59% · UCLA 41%
- Final margin
- UCLA by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for UCLA
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maryland by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Maryland 18% · UCLA 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Maryland · 
UCLA
More from Week 8 2025
- USC at Notre Dame ND 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Purdue at Northwestern NU 19–0 · replay 77% for the winner
- Washington at Michigan MICH 24–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Nebraska at Minnesota MINN 24–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Penn State at Iowa IOWA 25–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ohio State at Wisconsin OSU 34–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oregon at Rutgers ORE 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Michigan State at Indiana IU 38–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner