Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress

Maryland Terrapins: luck and expected wins

Maryland is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.7 wins. Luck cost 0.7: the 24th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Maryland wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Hampton	W 62–0	100%	0
Week 2	@ UConn	W 38–14	87%	+13
Week 3	vs Virginia Tech	L 26–35	53%	−53
Week 4	vs UCLA	L 3–54	28%	−28

Wk 1 0 vs HAMP

Wk 2 +13 @ CONN

Wk 3 −53 vs VT

Wk 4 −28 vs UCLA

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Maryland win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Nebraska	Nebraska by 22.0	8%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Ohio State	Ohio State by 33.8	2%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Rutgers	Maryland by 2.7	57%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Illinois	Illinois by 9.8	28%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Purdue	Purdue by 2.5	44%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Wisconsin	Wisconsin by 8.3	31%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at USC	USC by 20.1	12%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Penn State	Penn State by 17.2	15%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Maryland’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.07	+3.2
Kicks	+0.02	−1.7
3rd & 4th downs	−0.05	+3.9

Luckiest wins

Wins Maryland takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 1	vs Florida Atlantic	W 39–7	68%	+32
2025 Week 4	@ Wisconsin	W 27–10	80%	+20
2026 Week 2	@ UConn	W 38–14	87%	+13
2025 Week 2	vs Northern Illinois	W 20–9	93%	+7
2025 Week 3	vs Towson	W 44–17	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Maryland would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 3	vs Virginia Tech	L 26–35	53%	−53
2025 Week 14	vs Michigan State	L 28–38	45%	−45
2026 Week 4	vs UCLA	L 3–54	28%	−28
2025 Week 8	@ UCLA	L 17–20	18%	−18
2025 Week 6	vs Washington	L 20–24	17%	−17

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	4.5	−0.5	0–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Florida Atlantic	W 39–7	68%	+32
Week 2	vs Northern Illinois	W 20–9	93%	+7
Week 3	vs Towson	W 44–17	100%	0
Week 4	@ Wisconsin	W 27–10	80%	+20
Week 6	vs Washington	L 20–24	17%	−17
Week 7	vs Nebraska	L 31–34	4%	−4
Week 8	@ UCLA	L 17–20	18%	−18
Week 10	vs Indiana	L 10–55	4%	−4
Week 11	@ Rutgers	L 20–35	4%	−4
Week 12	@ Illinois	L 6–24	8%	−8
Week 13	vs Michigan	L 20–45	7%	−7
Week 14	vs Michigan State	L 28–38	45%	−45