Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Hampton at Maryland, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Maryland beat Hampton 62–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Maryland wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Maryland was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Hampton Pirates | 0 |
|---|---|
 Maryland Terrapins | 62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Maryland about even · 0 Hampton
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hampton wins 0, Maryland wins 10.
- 1 HAMP 7 MD 38
- 2 HAMP 0 MD 40
- 3 HAMP 0 MD 45
- 4 HAMP 0 MD 49
- 5 HAMP 3 MD 56
- 6 HAMP 6 MD 62
- 7 HAMP 0 MD 59
- 8 HAMP 0 MD 63
- 9 HAMP 3 MD 70
- 10 HAMP 6 MD 84
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Hampton wins 0% of them, Maryland 100%. The line is what actually happened: Maryland by 62.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hampton by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Hampton by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Hampton by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 3.2% |
| Maryland by 17+ | 96.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- S. O'Haire, 36 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Hampton 9 for 60 yards, Maryland 5 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:23 | Face Mask on Maryland, 15 yards | 0% HAMP +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:23 | Delay of Game on Hampton, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HAMP +1.8 pts |
| Q1 9:23 | Delay of Game on Hampton, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.5 pts |
| Q1 4:43 | Delay of Game on Hampton, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HAMP +1.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards | 0% HAMP +2.3 pts |
| Q2 10:27 | Illegal Substitution on Hampton, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.4 pts |
| Q2 5:46 | Delay of Game on Hampton, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:34 | Delay of Game on Hampton, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% MD +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:34 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HAMP +0.3 pts |
| Q3 8:08 | Delay of Game on Hampton, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:09 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% HAMP +2.9 pts |
| Q4 13:12 | Holding on Hampton, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MD +2.4 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Personal Foul on Hampton, 15 yards | 0% MD +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Personal Foul on Maryland, 15 yards | 0% HAMP +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Maryland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% HAMP | MD: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:40 | Hampton converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedHampton was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% MD | HAMP: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:23 | Hampton was stopped on 3rd & 243rd & 4th downs · 12% expectedFace Mask on Maryland, 15 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on Hampton, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsDelay of Game on Hampton, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% HAMP | HAMP: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:30 | Maryland converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 4:43 | Delay of Game on Hampton, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% HAMP | MD: End of half |
| 6 | Q1 2:17 | Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +0% MD | MD: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 1:34 | Maryland converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedMaryland was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedDelay of Game on Hampton, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Maryland, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:12 | Hampton converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedHampton converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedHampton converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedHampton was stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedHolding on Hampton, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% MD | HAMP: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hampton 0% · Maryland 100%
- Final margin
- Maryland by 62
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Maryland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maryland by 59.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Hampton 0% · Maryland 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Hampton · 
Maryland
More from Week 1 2026
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Wisconsin vs Notre Dame ND 41–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- UAlbany at Buffalo BUF 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ohio at Nebraska NEB 49–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Temple TEM 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- UCLA at California UCLA 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner