Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Rhode Island at Temple, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Temple beat Rhode Island 38–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Temple wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Temple was an 83% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:20 left): Return touchdown by Temple, worth 10 points of win probability to Temple.
Final
 Rhode Island Rams | 14 |
|---|---|
 Temple Owls | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Temple about even · −5 Rhode Island
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rhode Island wins 0, Temple wins 10.
- 1 URI 14 TEM 17
- 2 URI 17 TEM 24
- 3 URI 24 TEM 35
- 4 URI 20 TEM 34
- 5 URI 3 TEM 20
- 6 URI 21 TEM 41
- 7 URI 0 TEM 23
- 8 URI 13 TEM 39
- 9 URI 7 TEM 38
- 10 URI 0 TEM 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rhode Island wins 5% of them, Temple 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Temple by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rhode Island by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Rhode Island by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Rhode Island by 1–8 | 3.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 10.0% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Temple by 17+ | 67.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hardin, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- C. Hardin, 51 yds missed · 53% expected
Penalties: Rhode Island 4 for 18 yards, Temple 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:21 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% URI +5.8 pts |
| Q1 4:16 | Holding on Rhode Island, 10 yards | +2% TEM +1.6 pts |
| Q1 0:03 | False Start on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% URI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:39 | Illegal Use of Hands on Rhode Island, 2 yards | +1% TEM +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:28 | Offside on Rhode Island, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% URI +0.3 pts |
| Q3 11:30 | Illegal Shift on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% URI +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:37 | False Start on Rhode Island, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Temple’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:38 | Rhode Island converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +2% URI | URI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:21 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% URI | URI: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:16 | Holding on Rhode Island, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% TEM | TEM: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:52 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% URI | TEM: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 9:46 | Rhode Island converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% URI | URI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 9:20 | Return touchdown by TempleSpecial teams | +10% TEM | TEM: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 6:42 | Rhode Island converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +2% URI | URI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 4:21 | Rhode Island converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +2% URI | URI: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rhode Island 0% · Temple 100%
- Final margin
- Temple by 24
- Luck in points
- 7.0 for Rhode Island
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Temple by 31.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Rhode Island 5% · Temple 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Rhode Island · 
Temple
More from Week 1 2026
- The Citadel at Charlotte CIT 43–41 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- UAlbany at Buffalo BUF 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- Towson at Navy NAVY 42–15 · replay 97% for the winner
- Tulane at Duke DUKE 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Houston Christian at Rice RICE 31–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- East Carolina at Alabama ALA 48–10 · replay 99% for the winner