Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Tulane at Duke, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Duke beat Tulane 17–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Duke wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Duke was a 73% favorite.
Final
 Tulane Green Wave | 3 |
|---|---|
 Duke Blue Devils | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Duke about even · −3 Tulane
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulane wins 0, Duke wins 10.
- 1 TULN 6 DUKE 10
- 2 TULN 3 DUKE 13
- 3 TULN 0 DUKE 13
- 4 TULN 10 DUKE 26
- 5 TULN 3 DUKE 20
- 6 TULN 10 DUKE 30
- 7 TULN 3 DUKE 27
- 8 TULN 0 DUKE 26
- 9 TULN 3 DUKE 34
- 10 TULN 2 DUKE 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulane wins 3% of them, Duke 97%. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulane by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 2.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 8.4% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| Duke by 17+ | 73.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Salas, 32 yds missed · 84% expected
- J. Courville, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
- C. Salas, 22 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Courville, 37 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Tulane 14 for 99 yards, Duke 8 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:05 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TULN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:19 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DUKE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:56 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DUKE +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:56 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TULN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:51 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | +2% TULN +1.3 pts |
| Q3 13:17 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 3 yards | +1% DUKE +1.2 pts |
| Q3 12:03 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% DUKE +3.1 pts |
| Q3 10:01 | Offside on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DUKE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:47 | Illegal Block on Tulane, 10 yards | +1% DUKE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:42 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% DUKE +2.3 pts |
| Q3 7:19 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TULN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:32 | Chop Block on Tulane, 9 yards | +4% DUKE +2.5 pts |
| Q3 1:48 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 12:08 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yards | +4% DUKE +2.3 pts |
| Q4 5:41 | False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:30 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:30 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:16 | False Start on Tulane, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:41 | Pass Interference on Duke, 12 yards | 0% TULN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:15 | False Start on Duke, 6 yards · pre-snap | +1% DUKE +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:51 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards | 0% DUKE +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Duke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:28 | Duke converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +4% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:17 | Duke converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +4% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 9:21 | C. Salas missed a 32-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him | +4% TULN | DUKE: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 6:47 | J. Courville missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him | +4% DUKE | TULN: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 12:29 | Duke fumbled and Tulane recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% TULN | DUKE: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 12:03 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% DUKE | DUKE: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 4:32 | Chop Block on Tulane, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +4% DUKE | DUKE: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:08 | Pass Interference on Tulane, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulane 28% · Duke 72%
- Final margin
- Duke by 14
- Luck in points
- 9.5 for Duke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Duke by 4.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulane 3% · Duke 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Tulane · 
Duke
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- The Citadel at Charlotte CIT 43–41 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner