luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · August 29, 2026

New Mexico State at Florida State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Florida State beat New Mexico State 34–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida State wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Florida State was a 98% favorite.

Final

New Mexico State Aggies 17
Florida State Seminoles 34

August 29, 2026 · Doak Campbell Stadium · Closing line: Florida State −30.5

Luck index +18 Florida State about even · −18 New Mexico State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. New Mexico State wins 2, Florida State wins 8.

  1. 1 NMSU 21 FSU 7
  2. 2 NMSU 9 FSU 6
  3. 3 NMSU 17 FSU 20
  4. 4 NMSU 17 FSU 21
  5. 5 NMSU 10 FSU 17
  6. 6 NMSU 10 FSU 21
  7. 7 NMSU 3 FSU 17
  8. 8 NMSU 7 FSU 25
  9. 9 NMSU 7 FSU 31
  10. 10 NMSU 3 FSU 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

New Mexico State wins 18% of them, Florida State 82%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida State by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
New Mexico State by 17+2.2%
New Mexico State by 9–165.0%
New Mexico State by 1–810.3%
Level after regulation4.3%
Florida State by 1–822.7%
Florida State by 9–1621.1%
Florida State by 17+34.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to Florida State: the final margin was Florida State by 17, without the luck Florida State by 16.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Panikowski, 43 yds made · 67% expected
  • I. Uvaydov, 38 yds made · 76% expected
  • G. Panikowski, 41 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: New Mexico State 6 for 53 yards, Florida State 7 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:55 Tripping on Florida State, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% NMSU +4.1 pts
Q1 4:15 False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NMSU +0.7 pts
Q1 2:25 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FSU +0.6 pts
Q2 2:29 Pass Interference on New Mexico State, 15 yards 0% FSU +1.1 pts
Q3 9:48 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FSU +0.9 pts
Q3 8:47 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida State, 15 yards +1% NMSU +1.6 pts
Q4 10:53 False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NMSU +0.6 pts
Q4 8:32 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FSU +0.9 pts
Q4 7:42 Holding on Florida State, 25 yards 0% NMSU +1.5 pts
Q4 7:15 Face Mask on New Mexico State, 15 yards 0% FSU +1.6 pts
Q4 5:23 Holding on Florida State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NMSU +1.8 pts
Q4 3:55 Holding on New Mexico State, 8 yards 0% FSU +0.5 pts
Q4 2:00 Illegal Substitution on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NMSU +2.4 pts

When it happened

Florida State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida State was ahead in it, below while New Mexico State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:46 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +1% NMSU NMSU: Turnover
2 Q1 9:25 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +1% NMSU NMSU: Turnover
3 Q1 5:59 Florida State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +1% FSU FSU: Field goal
4 Q1 4:55 Tripping on Florida State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% NMSU NMSU: Punt
5 Q2 10:49 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +1% NMSU NMSU: Punt
6 Q2 9:27 Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +1% NMSU FSU: Punt
7 Q2 0:36 Florida State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +1% FSU FSU: Punt
8 Q3 6:29 Florida State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +1% FSU FSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

New Mexico State 1% · Florida State 99%

Final margin
Florida State by 17
Luck in points
0.1 for Florida State
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida State by 16.9
Replay with same day's form
New Mexico State 18% · Florida State 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · New Mexico State · Florida State

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