Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Sam Houston at Troy, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Troy beat Sam Houston 24–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Troy wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Troy was an 84% favorite.
Final
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 21 |
|---|---|
 Troy Trojans | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Troy lucky · −45 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sam Houston wins 4, Troy wins 6.
- 1 SHSU 38 TROY 13
- 2 SHSU 21 TROY 7
- 3 SHSU 28 TROY 20
- 4 SHSU 20 TROY 17
- 5 SHSU 35 TROY 37
- 6 SHSU 17 TROY 24
- 7 SHSU 14 TROY 24
- 8 SHSU 6 TROY 19
- 9 SHSU 0 TROY 20
- 10 SHSU 14 TROY 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sam Houston wins 45% of them, Troy 55%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Troy by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 11.3% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 12.8% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 17.4% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| Troy by 17+ | 18.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Sam Houston 6 for 58 yards, Troy 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:54 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:13 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:45 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yards | +2% SHSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:26 | Offside on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SHSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:28 | Personal Foul on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +3% TROY +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:58 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:53 | Intentional Grounding on Sam Houston, 14 yards | 0% TROY +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:13 | Illegal Formation on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SHSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 0:58 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +5% TROY +1.8 pts |
| Q3 0:17 | Intentional Grounding on Sam Houston, 9 yards | +1% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:04 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yards | +1% SHSU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:08 | Holding on Troy, 10 yards | 0% SHSU +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Troy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 3:38 | Troy converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% TROY | TROY: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 6:49 | Troy was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +4% SHSU | TROY: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 3:38 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +8% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 0:58 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 0:17 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedIntentional Grounding on Sam Houston, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TROY | SHSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 13:58 | Troy converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +4% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 12:02 | Troy converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +4% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:03 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% SHSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sam Houston 33% · Troy 67%
- Final margin
- Troy by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for Troy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Troy by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Sam Houston 45% · Troy 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Sam Houston · 
Troy
More from Week 1 2026
- SE Louisiana at South Alabama USA 39–14 · replay 12% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- Liberty at James Madison JMU 20–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- Murray State at Middle Tennessee MTSU 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at New Mexico State NMSU 51–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at North Dakota State NDSU 33–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Old Dominion ODU 31–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State JXST 49–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lamar at Louisiana UL 38–7 · replay 100% for the winner