Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
SE Louisiana at South Alabama, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
South Alabama beat SE Louisiana 39–14, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, SE Louisiana wins 9 of 10.
South Alabama won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against SE Louisiana it would win 79% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff South Alabama was an 81% favorite.
Final
 SE Louisiana Lions | 14 |
|---|---|
 South Alabama Jaguars | 39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +88 South Alabama very lucky · −88 SE Louisiana
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. SE Louisiana wins 9, South Alabama wins 1.
- 1 SELA 56 USA 14
- 2 SELA 42 USA 10
- 3 SELA 27 USA 0
- 4 SELA 35 USA 13
- 5 SELA 33 USA 14
- 6 SELA 31 USA 16
- 7 SELA 29 USA 17
- 8 SELA 35 USA 27
- 9 SELA 21 USA 18
- 10 SELA 19 USA 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
South Alabama won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against SE Louisiana it would win 79% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
67 points apart for South Alabama: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| SE Louisiana offenseEPA per play gained | −0.45 | +0.06 | worse by 0.51 |
| SE Louisiana defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.11 | −0.01 | better by 0.10 |
| South Alabama offenseEPA per play gained | −0.11 | +0.08 | worse by 0.19 |
| South Alabama defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.45 | +0.10 | better by 0.55 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
SE Louisiana wins 88% of them, South Alabama 12%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Alabama by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| SE Louisiana by 17+ | 51.8% |
| SE Louisiana by 9–16 | 20.9% |
| SE Louisiana by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 7.4% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| South Alabama by 17+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Little, 35 yds made · 79% expected
- D. Talley, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
- D. Little, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- D. Little, 26 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: SE Louisiana 7 for 57 yards, South Alabama 5 for 62 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:52 | Face Mask on SE Louisiana, 15 yards | +1% USA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 13:00 | False Start on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USA +0.8 pts |
| Q1 11:31 | Pass Interference on SE Louisiana, 14 yards | 0% USA +0.3 pts |
| Q1 2:32 | Face Mask on South Alabama, 12 yards | 0% SELA +1.5 pts |
| Q2 9:06 | Ineligible Downfield on South Alabama, 5 yards | +1% SELA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:37 | Offside on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:37 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% SELA +2.8 pts |
| Q3 6:59 | Holding on SE Louisiana, 10 yards | +1% USA +1.4 pts |
| Q3 2:17 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% SELA +2.0 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Holding on South Alabama, 25 yards | 0% USA +1.7 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offside on SE Louisiana, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:18 | Delay of Game on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.1 pts |
When it happened
South Alabama’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:19 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% USA | USA: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 11:31 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedSouth Alabama converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedSouth Alabama fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Pass Interference on SE Louisiana, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +3% USA | USA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 4:59 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +1% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:39 | South Alabama was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedSE Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +3% SELA | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 1:54 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +1% SELA | USA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 12:37 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedSouth Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedHolding on South Alabama, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% SELA | USA: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 7:04 | D. Little made a 26-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +1% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:06 | South Alabama converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +2% USA | USA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
SE Louisiana 9% · South Alabama 91%
- Final margin
- South Alabama by 25
- Luck in points
- 16.4 for South Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Alabama by 8.6
- Replay with same day's form
- SE Louisiana 88% · South Alabama 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
SE Louisiana · 
South Alabama
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