luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Alcorn State at Southern Miss, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Southern Miss beat Alcorn State 49–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Southern Miss wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Southern Miss was a 91% favorite.

Final

Alcorn State Braves 3
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 49

September 5, 2026 · M. M. Roberts Stadium · Closing line: Southern Miss −20.5

Luck index 0 Southern Miss about even · 0 Alcorn State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Alcorn State wins 0, Southern Miss wins 10.

  1. 1 ALCN 13 USM 38
  2. 2 ALCN 14 USM 49
  3. 3 ALCN 17 USM 58
  4. 4 ALCN 17 USM 62
  5. 5 ALCN 7 USM 56
  6. 6 ALCN 7 USM 59
  7. 7 ALCN 0 USM 55
  8. 8 ALCN 7 USM 66
  9. 9 ALCN 6 USM 70
  10. 10 ALCN 3 USM 76

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Alcorn State wins 0% of them, Southern Miss 100%. The line is what actually happened: Southern Miss by 46.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Alcorn State by 17+0.0%
Alcorn State by 9–160.0%
Alcorn State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Southern Miss by 1–80.1%
Southern Miss by 9–160.9%
Southern Miss by 17+98.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to Alcorn State: the final margin was Southern Miss by 46, without the luck Southern Miss by 50.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Wilbanks, 35 yds missed · 79% expected
  • K. Bowyer, 22 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Alcorn State 7 for 69 yards, Southern Miss 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:51 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALCN +0.6 pts
Q1 11:02 Face Mask on Alcorn State, 15 yards +1% USM +1.6 pts
Q1 4:08 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ALCN +0.8 pts
Q1 3:10 Pass Interference on Alcorn State, 12 yards +1% USM +1.3 pts
Q1 2:29 Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards 0% ALCN +0.8 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on Alcorn State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USM +1.0 pts
Q2 7:46 Holding on Alcorn State, 10 yards +1% USM +1.5 pts
Q2 1:17 Holding on Alcorn State, 7 yards 0% USM +1.2 pts
Q3 12:35 Illegal Formation on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALCN +0.7 pts
Q3 12:26 Pass Interference on Alcorn State, 15 yards 0% USM +1.7 pts
Q3 6:11 False Start on Alcorn State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USM +0.8 pts

When it happened

Southern Miss’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Southern Miss was ahead in it, below while Alcorn State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:29 Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +1% ALCN USM: Missed field goal
2 Q1 8:28 Alcorn State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +1% USM ALCN: Punt
3 Q1 6:24 Alcorn State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +1% USM ALCN: Field goal
4 Q1 4:08 False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% ALCN ALCN: Punt
5 Q1 3:10 Pass Interference on Alcorn State, 12 yardsJudgment calls +1% USM USM: Touchdown
6 Q1 1:00 Alcorn State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +2% ALCN ALCN: Punt
7 Q2 13:25 Southern Miss converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +1% USM USM: Touchdown
8 Q2 6:33 Alcorn State converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +2% ALCN ALCN: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Alcorn State 0% · Southern Miss 100%

Final margin
Southern Miss by 46
Luck in points
4.1 for Alcorn State
Luck-adjusted margin
Southern Miss by 50.1
Replay with same day's form
Alcorn State 0% · Southern Miss 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Alcorn State · Southern Miss

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