luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 3, 2026

Bethune-Cookman at UCF, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

UCF beat Bethune-Cookman 73–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UCF wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff UCF was a 100% favorite.

Final

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 6
UCF Knights 73

September 3, 2026 · FBC Mortgage Stadium · Closing line: UCF −43.5

Luck index 0 UCF about even · 0 Bethune-Cookman

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bethune-Cookman wins 0, UCF wins 10.

  1. 1 BCU 7 UCF 45
  2. 2 BCU 0 UCF 47
  3. 3 BCU 0 UCF 52
  4. 4 BCU 6 UCF 62
  5. 5 BCU 0 UCF 59
  6. 6 BCU 3 UCF 66
  7. 7 BCU 0 UCF 66
  8. 8 BCU 0 UCF 70
  9. 9 BCU 0 UCF 75
  10. 10 BCU 0 UCF 80

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bethune-Cookman wins 0% of them, UCF 100%. The line is what actually happened: UCF by 67.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bethune-Cookman by 17+0.0%
Bethune-Cookman by 9–160.0%
Bethune-Cookman by 1–80.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
UCF by 1–80.8%
UCF by 9–162.8%
UCF by 17+96.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.9 points to UCF: the final margin was UCF by 67, without the luck UCF by 57.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Bethune-Cookman 11 for 67 yards, UCF 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:04 Delay of Game on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCF +0.2 pts
Q2 14:54 Illegal Formation on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCF +0.6 pts
Q2 11:52 Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BCU +0.5 pts
Q2 11:40 Intentional Grounding on Bethune-Cookman, 9 yards 0% UCF +0.6 pts
Q2 7:17 Illegal Shift on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% UCF +1.1 pts
Q2 5:51 False Start on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCF +0.7 pts
Q2 3:21 Ineligible Downfield on UCF, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% BCU +4.5 pts
Q2 2:11 Pass Interference on UCF, 10 yards 0% BCU +1.6 pts
Q2 1:59 Pass Interference on Bethune-Cookman, 8 yards 0% UCF +2.7 pts
Q2 1:33 False Start on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCF +0.4 pts
Q2 0:23 False Start on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCF +0.6 pts
Q2 0:20 Holding on Bethune-Cookman, 10 yards 0% UCF +0.8 pts
Q3 13:36 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCF, 15 yards 0% BCU +1.6 pts
Q3 11:34 Delay of Game on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCF +0.2 pts
Q3 8:36 False Start on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCF +0.3 pts
Q4 6:20 Personal Foul on UCF, 15 yards 0% BCU +2.8 pts
Q4 5:49 Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BCU +0.2 pts

When it happened

UCF’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UCF was ahead in it, below while Bethune-Cookman was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:17 Bethune-Cookman converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +0% BCU BCU: Punt
2 Q1 12:24 Bethune-Cookman was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +0% UCF BCU: Punt
3 Q1 10:42 Return touchdown by UCFSpecial teams +0% UCF UCF: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:29 Bethune-Cookman was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +0% UCF BCU: Punt
5 Q1 4:12 UCF converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +0% UCF UCF: Touchdown
6 Q1 1:04 Bethune-Cookman was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedDelay of Game on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% UCF BCU: Punt
7 Q2 7:17 Illegal Shift on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +0% UCF UCF: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:20 Holding on Bethune-Cookman, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% UCF UCF: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bethune-Cookman 0% · UCF 100%

Final margin
UCF by 67
Luck in points
9.9 for UCF
Luck-adjusted margin
UCF by 57.1
Replay with same day's form
Bethune-Cookman 0% · UCF 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Bethune-Cookman · UCF

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