Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Abilene Christian at Texas Tech, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat Abilene Christian 33–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Abilene Christian Wildcats | 10 |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Texas Tech about even · 0 Abilene Christian
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Abilene Christian wins 0, Texas Tech wins 10.
- 1 ACU 17 TTU 28
- 2 ACU 6 TTU 26
- 3 ACU 10 TTU 34
- 4 ACU 0 TTU 27
- 5 ACU 0 TTU 30
- 6 ACU 9 TTU 42
- 7 ACU 7 TTU 44
- 8 ACU 7 TTU 48
- 9 ACU 0 TTU 45
- 10 ACU 0 TTU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Abilene Christian wins 0% of them, Texas Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Abilene Christian by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Abilene Christian by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Abilene Christian by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 94.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Harrington, 23 yds made · 95% expected
- B. Perez, 41 yds made · 70% expected
- S. Harrington, 28 yds made · 91% expected
- S. Harrington, 33 yds made · 86% expected
- B. Perez, 51 yds missed · 52% expected
- S. Harrington, 45 yds made · 65% expected
Penalties: Abilene Christian 4 for 17 yards, Texas Tech 3 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:21 | Illegal Snap on Abilene Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Illegal Snap on Abilene Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 10:52 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ACU +1.8 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Holding on Abilene Christian, 7 yards | 0% TTU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Pass Interference on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% ACU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:29 | Roughing the Passer on Texas Tech, 15 yards | 0% ACU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:21 | Intentional Grounding on Abilene Christian, 0 yards | 0% TTU 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Texas Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:19 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:07 | Abilene Christian converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% ACU | ACU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 14:06 | Abilene Christian converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +0% ACU | ACU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:29 | Abilene Christian was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% TTU | ACU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:52 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% ACU | ACU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 8:13 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 5:48 | Abilene Christian was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% TTU | ACU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 1:41 | Texas Tech was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% ACU | TTU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Abilene Christian 0% · Texas Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 23
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 21.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Abilene Christian 0% · Texas Tech 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Abilene Christian · 
Texas Tech
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Tarleton State at Bowling Green TAR 20–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Austin Peay at Vanderbilt VAN 28–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- North Alabama at Arkansas ARK 31–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State ISU 38–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State JXST 49–7 · replay 99% for the winner