luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

North Alabama at Arkansas, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Arkansas beat North Alabama 31–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arkansas wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Arkansas was a 100% favorite.

Final

North Alabama Lions 14
Arkansas Razorbacks 31

September 5, 2026 · Razorback Stadium · Closing line: Arkansas −40.5

Luck index +2 Arkansas about even · −2 North Alabama

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Alabama wins 0, Arkansas wins 10.

  1. 1 UNA 14 ARK 20
  2. 2 UNA 17 ARK 30
  3. 3 UNA 10 ARK 27
  4. 4 UNA 20 ARK 40
  5. 5 UNA 7 ARK 31
  6. 6 UNA 14 ARK 40
  7. 7 UNA 3 ARK 32
  8. 8 UNA 0 ARK 33
  9. 9 UNA 0 ARK 38
  10. 10 UNA 0 ARK 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Alabama wins 2% of them, Arkansas 98%. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Alabama by 17+0.0%
North Alabama by 9–160.3%
North Alabama by 1–81.5%
Level after regulation0.3%
Arkansas by 1–85.7%
Arkansas by 9–1611.4%
Arkansas by 17+80.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.0 points to Arkansas: the final margin was Arkansas by 17, without the luck Arkansas by 9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: North Alabama 9 for 92 yards, Arkansas 8 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:51 False Start on North Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARK +1.2 pts
Q1 11:38 Illegal Block on Arkansas, 10 yards 0% UNA +0.6 pts
Q1 11:06 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards 0% UNA +1.9 pts
Q1 8:56 False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNA +0.8 pts
Q1 6:46 Intentional Grounding on North Alabama, 13 yards 0% ARK +0.8 pts
Q1 1:37 Pass Interference on North Alabama, 11 yards 0% ARK +0.8 pts
Q2 9:54 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% UNA +0.3 pts
Q2 8:49 Pass Interference on North Alabama, 15 yards 0% ARK +1.4 pts
Q2 8:05 Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards 0% UNA +1.8 pts
Q2 5:04 Ineligible Downfield on Arkansas, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% UNA +2.1 pts
Q2 1:05 Personal Foul on North Alabama, 8 yards 0% ARK +0.5 pts
Q2 0:52 False Start on North Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARK +0.5 pts
Q3 14:48 Holding on North Alabama, 10 yards 0% ARK +0.6 pts
Q3 3:19 Personal Foul on Arkansas, 15 yards 0% UNA +1.6 pts
Q3 3:03 Face Mask on Arkansas, 4 yards 0% UNA +1.0 pts
Q3 1:07 Roughing the Passer on North Alabama, 15 yards 0% ARK +0.7 pts
Q4 2:59 Holding on North Alabama, 10 yards 0% ARK +0.7 pts

When it happened

Arkansas’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arkansas was ahead in it, below while North Alabama was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:06 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% UNA UNA: Punt
2 Q1 7:28 Arkansas was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +0% UNA ARK: Punt
3 Q1 6:46 North Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedIntentional Grounding on North Alabama, 13 yardsJudgment calls +0% ARK UNA: Punt
4 Q1 5:16 Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +0% UNA ARK: Punt
5 Q1 2:01 Arkansas converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% ARK ARK: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:36 Arkansas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% ARK ARK: Touchdown
7 Q2 9:54 Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% UNA UNA: Punt
8 Q4 2:59 M. Gilbert made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for himHolding on North Alabama, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% ARK ARK: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Alabama 6% · Arkansas 94%

Final margin
Arkansas by 17
Luck in points
8.0 for Arkansas
Luck-adjusted margin
Arkansas by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
North Alabama 2% · Arkansas 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · North Alabama · Arkansas

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