luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Florida Atlantic at Florida, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Florida beat Florida Atlantic 66–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Florida was a 96% favorite.

Final

Florida Atlantic Owls 21
Florida Gators 66

September 5, 2026 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Closing line: Florida −26.5

Luck index +1 Florida about even · −1 Florida Atlantic

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Florida Atlantic wins 0, Florida wins 10.

  1. 1 FAU 21 FLA 27
  2. 2 FAU 24 FLA 38
  3. 3 FAU 10 FLA 31
  4. 4 FAU 14 FLA 41
  5. 5 FAU 7 FLA 38
  6. 6 FAU 7 FLA 41
  7. 7 FAU 18 FLA 56
  8. 8 FAU 14 FLA 55
  9. 9 FAU 7 FLA 55
  10. 10 FAU 3 FLA 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Florida Atlantic wins 1% of them, Florida 99%. The line is what actually happened: Florida by 45.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Florida Atlantic by 17+0.0%
Florida Atlantic by 9–160.1%
Florida Atlantic by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.1%
Florida by 1–83.1%
Florida by 9–166.0%
Florida by 17+90.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to Florida: the final margin was Florida by 45, without the luck Florida by 41.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Florida Atlantic 10 for 100 yards, Florida 3 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:39 Delay of Game on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FAU +0.3 pts
Q1 7:18 Offside on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FAU +0.2 pts
Q1 6:46 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida Atlantic, 13 yards 0% FLA +1.5 pts
Q1 5:42 Delay of Game on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FLA +0.6 pts
Q1 5:02 Personal Foul on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards 0% FLA +1.6 pts
Q2 9:33 Pass Interference on Florida, 12 yards 0% FAU +1.0 pts
Q2 4:21 Roughing the Passer on Florida Atlantic, 12 yards 0% FLA +1.5 pts
Q3 13:08 Unnecessary Roughness on Florida Atlantic, 12 yards 0% FLA +0.4 pts
Q3 13:08 Unnecessary Roughness on Florida Atlantic, 13 yards 0% FLA +0.8 pts
Q3 5:38 False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FAU +1.9 pts
Q3 4:15 Personal Foul on Florida, 15 yards 0% FAU +1.6 pts
Q3 0:20 Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards 0% FLA +0.4 pts
Q4 2:00 Offside on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FLA +1.4 pts

When it happened

Florida’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida was ahead in it, below while Florida Atlantic was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:21 Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +1% FAU FAU: Turnover
2 Q1 13:18 Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +0% FAU FAU: Turnover
3 Q2 14:13 Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +0% FAU FAU: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:02 Florida converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +0% FLA FLA: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:48 Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% FAU FAU: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:55 Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% FAU FAU: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:50 Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% FAU FAU: Turnover
8 Q2 5:18 Florida converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +0% FLA FLA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Florida Atlantic 0% · Florida 100%

Final margin
Florida by 45
Luck in points
3.4 for Florida
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida by 41.6
Replay with same day's form
Florida Atlantic 1% · Florida 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Florida Atlantic · Florida

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