Week 1 2026 · August 29, 2026
Memphis at UNLV, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Memphis beat UNLV 27–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Memphis wins 8 of 10.
An off day for UNLV: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Memphis it would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers
Before kickoff UNLV was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:15 left): Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards, worth 11 points of win probability to UNLV.
Final
 Memphis Tigers | 27 |
|---|---|
 UNLV Rebels | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Memphis about even · −16 UNLV
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Memphis wins 8, UNLV wins 2.
- 1 MEM 65 UNLV 23
- 2 MEM 42 UNLV 9
- 3 MEM 49 UNLV 21
- 4 MEM 44 UNLV 21
- 5 MEM 49 UNLV 31
- 6 MEM 45 UNLV 31
- 7 MEM 26 UNLV 17
- 8 MEM 21 UNLV 17
- 9 MEM 24 UNLV 27
- 10 MEM 10 UNLV 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for UNLV
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Memphis it would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for UNLV: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis offenseEPA per play gained | +0.25 | +0.10 | better by 0.15 |
| Memphis defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.11 | better by 0.06 |
| UNLV offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.13 | worse by 0.08 |
| UNLV defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.25 | +0.12 | worse by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Memphis wins 84% of them, UNLV 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Memphis by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Memphis by 17+ | 51.5% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 9.0% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 3.6% |
| UNLV by 17+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Villela, 32 yds missed · 84% expected
- P. Laforge, 32 yds made · 84% expected
- P. Laforge, 36 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Memphis 7 for 70 yards, UNLV 7 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:36 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNLV +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:04 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% UNLV +2.1 pts |
| Q1 1:15 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards | +4% MEM +1.7 pts |
| Q1 0:48 | Ineligible Downfield on UNLV, 5 yards | +1% MEM +1.1 pts |
| Q2 6:15 | Pass Interference on UNLV, 15 yards | +3% MEM +1.4 pts |
| Q2 5:50 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Memphis, 15 yards | +5% UNLV +2.3 pts |
| Q2 4:10 | Personal Foul on Memphis, 15 yards | +3% UNLV +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:44 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MEM +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:40 | Personal Foul on UNLV, 15 yards | +3% MEM +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:23 | Illegal Use of Hands on UNLV, 10 yards | +5% MEM +1.3 pts |
| Q4 13:08 | Pass Interference on UNLV, 15 yards | +9% MEM +2.4 pts |
| Q4 10:15 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards | +11% UNLV +2.7 pts |
| Q4 4:46 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNLV +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:04 | Delay of Game on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNLV +0.2 pts |
When it happened
UNLV’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:22 | UNLV converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 2:00 | UNLV converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +6% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 2:38 | Memphis converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +9% MEM | MEM: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 13:08 | Pass Interference on UNLV, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% MEM | MEM: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 10:15 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +11% UNLV | UNLV: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 6:48 | UNLV was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% MEM | UNLV: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 6:08 | UNLV was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +9% MEM | UNLV: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 5:10 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +6% UNLV | MEM: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Memphis 61% · UNLV 39%
- Final margin
- Memphis by 6
- Luck in points
- 4.3 for Memphis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Memphis by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Memphis 84% · UNLV 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Memphis · 
UNLV
More from Week 1 2026
- The Citadel at Charlotte CIT 43–41 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- UNLV at Hawai'i UNLV 21–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Temple TEM 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at North Dakota State NDSU 33–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Towson at Navy NAVY 42–15 · replay 97% for the winner