Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
UNLV at Hawai'i, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
UNLV beat Hawai'i 21–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UNLV wins 9 of 10. Hawai'i had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 21 points of win probability to Hawai'i.
An off day for Hawai'i: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against UNLV it would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers
Before kickoff UNLV was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:32 left): S. Olvera-Harle made a 33-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to UNLV.
Final
 UNLV Rebels | 21 |
|---|---|
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 UNLV about even · −5 Hawai'i
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UNLV wins 9, Hawai'i wins 1.
- 1 UNLV 40 HAW 0
- 2 UNLV 31 HAW 0
- 3 UNLV 27 HAW 0
- 4 UNLV 27 HAW 3
- 5 UNLV 20 HAW 0
- 6 UNLV 20 HAW 3
- 7 UNLV 24 HAW 10
- 8 UNLV 20 HAW 10
- 9 UNLV 10 HAW 6
- 10 UNLV 6 HAW 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Hawai'i
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against UNLV it would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for Hawai'i: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV offenseEPA per play gained | −0.06 | +0.12 | worse by 0.18 |
| UNLV defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.09 | +0.13 | better by 0.22 |
| Hawai'i offenseEPA per play gained | −0.09 | +0.13 | worse by 0.22 |
| Hawai'i defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.06 | +0.07 | better by 0.12 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UNLV wins 95% of them, Hawai'i 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UNLV by 17+ | 65.3% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 10.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 3.8% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Olvera-Harle, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- S. Olvera-Harle, 41 yds missed · 71% expected
- S. Olvera-Harle, 33 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: UNLV 7 for 64 yards, Hawai'i 6 for 59 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:09 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +2% UNLV +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:21 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +1% UNLV +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:42 | False Start on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HAW +0.3 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HAW +0.3 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HAW +1.4 pts |
| Q3 13:11 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% UNLV +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:40 | Roughing the Passer on UNLV, 15 yards | +4% HAW +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:29 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +1% UNLV +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:25 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards | +4% HAW +2.7 pts |
| Q3 8:03 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +1% UNLV +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:22 | Holding on Hawai'i, 4 yards | +3% UNLV +1.5 pts |
| Q3 3:25 | Targeting on UNLV, 9 yards | +3% HAW +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:16 | Personal Foul on UNLV, 15 yards | +1% HAW +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Hawai'i’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:48 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +5% HAW | HAW: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 2:12 | UNLV was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +4% HAW | UNLV: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:12 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% HAW | HAW: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 12:35 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% HAW | HAW: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 9:29 | S. Olvera-Harle missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for himPass Interference on Hawai'i, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% UNLV | HAW: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 1:40 | Hawai'i was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +7% HAW | HAW: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 1:32 | S. Olvera-Harle made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +9% UNLV | HAW: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 11:35 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% HAW | HAW: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UNLV 100% · Hawai'i 0%
- Final margin
- UNLV by 15
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Hawai'i
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UNLV by 19.6
- Replay with same day's form
- UNLV 95% · Hawai'i 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
UNLV · 
Hawai'i
More from Week 1 2026
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at North Dakota State NDSU 33–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Stanford STAN 37–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- San José State at USC USC 42–26 · replay 98% for the winner
- UTEP at Oklahoma OU 51–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Central Michigan at New Mexico UNM 38–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Fordham at North Dakota State NDSU 38–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duquesne at Air Force AF 34–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Iowa IOWA 40–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Nevada NEV 49–14 · replay 100% for the winner