Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Western Kentucky at Nevada, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Nevada beat Western Kentucky 49–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Nevada wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Western Kentucky: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Nevada it would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers
Before kickoff Western Kentucky was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 14 |
|---|---|
 Nevada Wolf Pack | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Nevada about even · 0 Western Kentucky
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Kentucky wins 0, Nevada wins 10.
- 1 WKU 10 NEV 28
- 2 WKU 0 NEV 27
- 3 WKU 10 NEV 42
- 4 WKU 14 NEV 49
- 5 WKU 6 NEV 45
- 6 WKU 7 NEV 52
- 7 WKU 10 NEV 59
- 8 WKU 7 NEV 59
- 9 WKU 7 NEV 63
- 10 WKU 0 NEV 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Western Kentucky
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Nevada it would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for Western Kentucky: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.08 | worse by 0.01 |
| Western Kentucky defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.58 | +0.04 | worse by 0.54 |
| Nevada offenseEPA per play gained | +0.58 | +0.01 | better by 0.56 |
| Nevada defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.04 | worse by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Kentucky wins 0% of them, Nevada 100%. The line is what actually happened: Nevada by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Nevada by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Nevada by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Nevada by 17+ | 97.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Western Kentucky 6 for 59 yards, Nevada 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:11 | False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NEV +1.9 pts |
| Q1 4:25 | Face Mask on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +3% NEV +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:16 | Chop Block on Nevada, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +3% WKU +2.1 pts |
| Q2 11:15 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | +5% NEV +2.8 pts |
| Q2 9:33 | Running Into the Kicker on Nevada, 5 yards | +4% WKU +2.7 pts |
| Q2 8:29 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | +1% NEV +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | Face Mask on Nevada, 15 yards | +3% WKU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | +3% NEV +1.5 pts |
| Q3 8:14 | Offside on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:34 | Illegal Block on Western Kentucky, 9 yards | 0% NEV +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Nevada’s chance of winning
As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:35 | Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +4% NEV | WKU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:11 | False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% NEV | NEV: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:48 | Nevada converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% NEV | NEV: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:25 | Face Mask on Western Kentucky, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% NEV | NEV: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:17 | Nevada converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% NEV | NEV: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 11:15 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% NEV | NEV: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 9:33 | Running Into the Kicker on Nevada, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +4% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 13:54 | Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +3% NEV | WKU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Kentucky 0% · Nevada 100%
- Final margin
- Nevada by 35
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for Nevada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nevada by 29.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Kentucky 0% · Nevada 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Western Kentucky · 
Nevada
More from Week 1 2026
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Troy TROY 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Liberty at James Madison JMU 20–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- UNLV at Hawai'i UNLV 21–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Murray State at Middle Tennessee MTSU 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at New Mexico State NMSU 51–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at North Dakota State NDSU 33–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Stanford STAN 37–27 · replay 97% for the winner