luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · August 29, 2026

Jacksonville State at North Dakota State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

North Dakota State beat Jacksonville State 33–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Dakota State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff North Dakota State was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:42 left): Jacksonville State was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to North Dakota State.

Final

Jacksonville State Gamecocks 7
North Dakota State Bison 33

August 29, 2026 · Fargodome · Closing line: North Dakota State −6.5

Luck index +3 North Dakota State about even · −3 Jacksonville State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jacksonville State wins 0, North Dakota State wins 10.

  1. 1 JXST 21 NDSU 24
  2. 2 JXST 10 NDSU 17
  3. 3 JXST 6 NDSU 17
  4. 4 JXST 7 NDSU 21
  5. 5 JXST 14 NDSU 31
  6. 6 JXST 10 NDSU 30
  7. 7 JXST 0 NDSU 23
  8. 8 JXST 0 NDSU 26
  9. 9 JXST 0 NDSU 31
  10. 10 JXST 0 NDSU 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jacksonville State wins 3% of them, North Dakota State 97%. The line is what actually happened: North Dakota State by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jacksonville State by 17+0.0%
Jacksonville State by 9–160.4%
Jacksonville State by 1–82.5%
Level after regulation0.4%
North Dakota State by 1–88.1%
North Dakota State by 9–1618.4%
North Dakota State by 17+70.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.1 points to North Dakota State: the final margin was North Dakota State by 26, without the luck North Dakota State by 18.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Klein, 34 yds made · 82% expected
  • D. Klein, 44 yds made · 65% expected
  • D. Klein, 42 yds made · 70% expected
  • G. Rippa, 52 yds missed · 51% expected
  • D. Klein, 48 yds made · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jacksonville State 7 for 62 yards, North Dakota State 13 for 108 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 False Start on North Dakota State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JXST +0.8 pts
Q1 9:54 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards +1% NDSU +0.6 pts
Q1 8:12 Delay of Game on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JXST +0.9 pts
Q1 6:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Dakota State, 15 yards +1% JXST +0.8 pts
Q1 4:47 Personal Foul on North Dakota State, 9 yards +2% JXST +1.3 pts
Q2 12:59 Holding on North Dakota State, 10 yards +3% JXST +1.5 pts
Q2 11:48 Delay of Game on North Dakota State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JXST +0.6 pts
Q2 6:24 Ineligible Downfield on North Dakota State, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% JXST +1.3 pts
Q2 0:47 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards 0% NDSU +0.1 pts
Q3 11:40 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Dakota State, 15 yards +4% JXST +2.1 pts
Q3 11:14 False Start on North Dakota State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JXST +0.6 pts
Q3 10:35 Illegal Formation on North Dakota State, 19 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% JXST +0.3 pts
Q3 6:51 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Jacksonville State, 13 yards +1% NDSU +0.8 pts
Q3 3:46 False Start on North Dakota State, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% JXST +0.9 pts
Q3 3:42 False Start on North Dakota State, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NDSU 0.0 pts
Q4 12:22 Holding on North Dakota State, 10 yards 0% JXST +0.9 pts
Q4 10:29 Illegal Snap on Jacksonville State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NDSU +0.2 pts
Q4 7:19 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NDSU +4.8 pts
Q4 4:34 Holding on North Dakota State, 10 yards 0% JXST +1.7 pts
Q4 1:55 Holding on Jacksonville State, 9 yards, wiping out the play +1% NDSU +1.3 pts

When it happened

North Dakota State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while North Dakota State was ahead in it, below while Jacksonville State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:53 North Dakota State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% JXST NDSU: Field goal
2 Q2 14:05 North Dakota State converted 4th & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% NDSU NDSU: Field goal
3 Q2 12:59 Holding on North Dakota State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% JXST JXST: Punt
4 Q2 7:20 Jacksonville State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% JXST JXST: Punt
5 Q2 6:24 Ineligible Downfield on North Dakota State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% JXST JXST: Punt
6 Q2 3:39 Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% NDSU JXST: Punt
7 Q2 1:42 Jacksonville State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +9% NDSU JXST: End of half
8 Q3 11:40 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Dakota State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% JXST JXST: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jacksonville State 0% · North Dakota State 100%

Final margin
North Dakota State by 26
Luck in points
7.1 for North Dakota State
Luck-adjusted margin
North Dakota State by 18.9
Replay with same day's form
Jacksonville State 3% · North Dakota State 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Jacksonville State · North Dakota State

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