Week 1 2026 · August 29, 2026
Hawai'i at Stanford, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Stanford beat Hawai'i 37–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Stanford wins 10 of 10. Hawai'i had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Hawai'i.
An off day for Hawai'i: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Stanford it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers
Before kickoff Stanford was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:12 left): Return touchdown by Stanford, worth 38 points of win probability to Stanford.
Final
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 27 |
|---|---|
 Stanford Cardinal | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Stanford about even · −3 Hawai'i
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hawai'i wins 0, Stanford wins 10.
- 1 HAW 19 STAN 24
- 2 HAW 17 STAN 28
- 3 HAW 17 STAN 34
- 4 HAW 10 STAN 29
- 5 HAW 9 STAN 31
- 6 HAW 10 STAN 35
- 7 HAW 3 STAN 31
- 8 HAW 10 STAN 42
- 9 HAW 10 STAN 48
- 10 HAW 3 STAN 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Hawai'i
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Stanford it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for Hawai'i: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.13 | worse by 0.02 |
| Hawai'i defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.06 | worse by 0.02 |
| Stanford offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | −0.00 | better by 0.09 |
| Stanford defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.04 | worse by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Hawai'i wins 3% of them, Stanford 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Stanford by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 11.0% |
| Stanford by 17+ | 80.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Kenney, 33 yds blocked · 84% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Hawai'i 7 for 31 yards, Stanford 7 for 62 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:45 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards | 0% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q1 11:40 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:43 | Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 6 yards | +4% STAN +2.2 pts |
| Q1 8:08 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HAW +0.2 pts |
| Q1 7:10 | Illegal Touching on Hawai'i, 0 yards, wiping out the play | +5% STAN +3.1 pts |
| Q1 6:37 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 8:29 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:03 | Delay of Game on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HAW +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:35 | Pass Interference on Stanford, 14 yards | +1% HAW +1.2 pts |
| Q4 10:33 | Face Mask on Stanford, 18 yards | +4% HAW +1.7 pts |
| Q4 9:46 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% STAN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:33 | Delay of Game on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:21 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% STAN +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Stanford’s chance of winning
As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:10 | Illegal Touching on Hawai'i, 0 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% STAN | STAN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 3:22 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedHawai'i fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% HAW | HAW: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 12:12 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 1:57 | E. Kenney had a 33-yard field goal blockedKicks · 84% expected for him | +6% HAW | STAN: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 7:25 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% HAW | STAN: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 6:18 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +9% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:06 | Hawai'i missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +8% STAN | HAW: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 1:12 | Hawai'i fumbled and Stanford recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by StanfordSpecial teams | +38% STAN | HAW: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hawai'i 2% · Stanford 98%
- Final margin
- Stanford by 10
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for Hawai'i
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stanford by 12.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Hawai'i 3% · Stanford 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Hawai'i · 
Stanford
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- UNLV at Hawai'i UNLV 21–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh PITT 59–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- UCLA at California UCLA 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner