Week 1 2026 · August 29, 2026
North Carolina vs TCU, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
North Carolina beat TCU 15–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. TCU had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to TCU.
An off day for TCU: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against North Carolina it would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers
Before kickoff TCU was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:24 left): North Carolina converted 4th & 7, worth 23 points of win probability to North Carolina.
Final
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 15 |
|---|---|
 TCU Horned Frogs | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 North Carolina lucky · −25 TCU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Carolina wins 7, TCU wins 3.
- 1 UNC 36 TCU 7
- 2 UNC 31 TCU 9
- 3 UNC 20 TCU 3
- 4 UNC 23 TCU 10
- 5 UNC 24 TCU 14
- 6 UNC 16 TCU 10
- 7 UNC 6 TCU 3
- 8 UNC 7 TCU 10
- 9 UNC 9 TCU 17
- 10 UNC 7 TCU 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for TCU
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against North Carolina it would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for TCU: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.06 | better by 0.02 |
| North Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.13 | +0.06 | better by 0.19 |
| TCU offenseEPA per play gained | −0.13 | +0.11 | worse by 0.24 |
| TCU defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.05 | worse by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Carolina wins 75% of them, TCU 25%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Carolina by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Carolina by 17+ | 29.1% |
| North Carolina by 9–16 | 22.6% |
| North Carolina by 1–8 | 22.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| TCU by 1–8 | 14.2% |
| TCU by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| TCU by 17+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Burrell, 20 yds made · 94% expected
- K. Lemmermann, 31 yds made · 84% expected
- A. Burrell, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- A. Burrell, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
Penalties: North Carolina 3 for 20 yards, TCU 11 for 91 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:00 | Offside on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNC +0.3 pts |
| Q2 14:15 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards | +1% UNC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:30 | Illegal Block on North Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% TCU +2.5 pts |
| Q2 7:45 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards | +4% UNC +1.5 pts |
| Q2 3:31 | False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNC +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:49 | Illegal Kick on TCU, 1 yard | 0% UNC +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:19 | Running Into the Kicker on North Carolina, 5 yards | 0% TCU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:19 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% UNC +1.4 pts |
| Q3 12:42 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on TCU, 15 yards | +4% UNC +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:30 | Intentional Grounding on TCU, 0 yards | 0% UNC 0.0 pts |
| Q3 2:11 | Face Mask on TCU, 15 yards | +6% UNC +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on TCU, 15 yards | +6% UNC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:30 | Delay of Game on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TCU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:01 | Offside on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNC +0.3 pts |
When it happened
TCU’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:24 | North Carolina converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +23% UNC | UNC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 5:39 | North Carolina fumbled and TCU recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% TCU | UNC: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 2:56 | TCU was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +14% UNC | TCU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 11:58 | A. Burrell missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +10% TCU | UNC: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 10:16 | TCU converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% TCU | TCU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 9:16 | TCU fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% TCU | TCU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 7:46 | TCU converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +11% TCU | TCU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 4:05 | TCU was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +20% UNC | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Carolina 82% · TCU 18%
- Final margin
- North Carolina by 5
- Luck in points
- 0.9 for TCU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Carolina by 5.9
- Replay with same day's form
- North Carolina 75% · TCU 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
North Carolina · 
TCU
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh PITT 59–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- UCLA at California UCLA 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- SMU at Florida State SMU 27–24 · replay 97% for the winner