Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
UCLA at California, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
UCLA beat California 45–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UCLA wins 10 of 10.
An off day for California: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against UCLA it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff UCLA was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:10 left): California was stopped on 4th & 3, worth 10 points of win probability to UCLA.
Final
 UCLA Bruins | 45 |
|---|---|
 California Golden Bears | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 UCLA about even · −4 California
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UCLA wins 10, California wins 0.
- 1 UCLA 65 CAL 10
- 2 UCLA 59 CAL 17
- 3 UCLA 50 CAL 13
- 4 UCLA 47 CAL 14
- 5 UCLA 42 CAL 12
- 6 UCLA 50 CAL 24
- 7 UCLA 50 CAL 28
- 8 UCLA 54 CAL 37
- 9 UCLA 39 CAL 27
- 10 UCLA 44 CAL 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for California
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against UCLA it would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for California: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.06 | better by 0.13 |
| UCLA defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.09 | worse by 0.00 |
| California offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.07 | better by 0.02 |
| California defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.07 | worse by 0.12 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UCLA wins 96% of them, California 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCLA by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UCLA by 17+ | 77.6% |
| UCLA by 9–16 | 11.5% |
| UCLA by 1–8 | 6.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| California by 1–8 | 2.0% |
| California by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| California by 17+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. McGough, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- M. Bhaghani, 38 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: UCLA 12 for 110 yards, California 6 for 59 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:37 | Face Mask on UCLA, 15 yards | +4% CAL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:46 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards | +7% CAL +3.1 pts |
| Q2 13:28 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UCLA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:46 | Holding on UCLA, 10 yards | +4% CAL +1.8 pts |
| Q2 4:33 | Holding on UCLA, 10 yards | +2% CAL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | Face Mask on California, 14 yards | +2% UCLA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Offside on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UCLA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | Targeting on California, 15 yards | 0% UCLA +0.1 pts |
| Q3 13:24 | Illegal Substitution on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAL +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:09 | Illegal Substitution on UCLA, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:03 | Face Mask on California, 15 yards | +6% UCLA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:10 | Illegal Snap on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 14:22 | Ineligible Downfield on California, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +7% UCLA +1.7 pts |
| Q4 12:42 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 3 yards | +1% CAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 10:57 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCLA, 15 yards | +4% CAL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:55 | Holding on UCLA, 10 yards | 0% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:05 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:52 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards | 0% CAL +2.7 pts |
When it happened
California’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:08 | California converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:46 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% CAL | CAL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 10:51 | UCLA converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 6:21 | UCLA converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 3:03 | Face Mask on California, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% UCLA | UCLA: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:22 | Ineligible Downfield on California, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% UCLA | UCLA: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 13:06 | California converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% CAL | CAL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 11:10 | California was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +10% UCLA | CAL: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UCLA 100% · California 0%
- Final margin
- UCLA by 21
- Luck in points
- 1.2 for UCLA
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UCLA by 19.8
- Replay with same day's form
- UCLA 96% · California 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
UCLA · 
California
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Wisconsin vs Notre Dame ND 41–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner