Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Western Michigan at Michigan, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Michigan beat Western Michigan 13–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan wins 9 of 10. Western Michigan had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Western Michigan.
Before kickoff Michigan was a 96% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:50 left): Michigan fumbled and Western Michigan recovered, worth 12 points of win probability to Western Michigan.
Final
 Western Michigan Broncos | 12 |
|---|---|
 Michigan Wolverines | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Michigan about even · −14 Western Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Michigan wins 1, Michigan wins 9.
- 1 WMU 16 MICH 7
- 2 WMU 10 MICH 13
- 3 WMU 7 MICH 13
- 4 WMU 13 MICH 20
- 5 WMU 10 MICH 21
- 6 WMU 7 MICH 21
- 7 WMU 3 MICH 21
- 8 WMU 0 MICH 20
- 9 WMU 7 MICH 31
- 10 WMU 0 MICH 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Michigan wins 14% of them, Michigan 86%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 3.6% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 9.2% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 24.2% |
| Michigan by 17+ | 35.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Kelly, 52 yds made · 50% expected
- D. Kelly, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- D. Kelly, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- D. Kelly, 33 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: Western Michigan 5 for 40 yards, Michigan 9 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:37 | Illegal Formation on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 5:12 | Face Mask on Western Michigan, 15 yards | 0% MICH +1.6 pts |
| Q1 4:18 | Illegal Formation on Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% WMU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:33 | Pass Interference on Michigan, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +3% WMU +3.9 pts |
| Q2 7:08 | Unnecessary Roughness on Michigan, 15 yards | +1% WMU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:03 | False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MICH +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:15 | Delay of Game on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MICH +0.2 pts |
| Q3 13:33 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards | +1% WMU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:31 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards | +2% WMU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 10:59 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% WMU +2.4 pts |
| Q3 1:42 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards | +3% MICH +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:17 | Offside on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WMU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:37 | Illegal Substitution on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% WMU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 1:42 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MICH | MICH: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 13:21 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +5% WMU | WMU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 9:14 | Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +7% WMU | MICH: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 8:15 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +11% WMU | WMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 6:02 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +6% WMU | WMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 2:37 | Illegal Substitution on Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% WMU | WMU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:50 | Michigan fumbled and Western Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% WMU | MICH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:11 | Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +3% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Michigan 2% · Michigan 98%
- Final margin
- Michigan by 1
- Luck in points
- 12.1 for Western Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan by 13.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Michigan 14% · Michigan 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Western Michigan · 
Michigan
More from Week 1 2026
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Tarleton State at Bowling Green TAR 20–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Wisconsin vs Notre Dame ND 41–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- UAlbany at Buffalo BUF 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ohio at Nebraska NEB 49–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner